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Primeira Liga
Referee: Tiago Martins
0–5
Full-time
Porto
S S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vitoria Setubal Porto
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
0,5
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
83%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
4,0
2,3
Scored
1,2
2,0
Conceded
2,8
0,3
Goal diff per game
-1,7
+1,7
This season — Primeira Liga · 13/13 matches
Win Ø 46%
15%
77%
Points per game
0,8
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 46%
38%
54%
Both score Ø 47%
62%
31%
Average goals
2,8
2,8
Scored
1,0
2,4
Conceded
1,8
0,4
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+2,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

29% Possession 71%
7 Shots 15
2 Shots on target 9
2 Blocked shots 0
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
2 Corners 7
1 Offside 1
17 Free kicks against 21
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Vitoria Setubal 16. · Porto 2.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Sp Lisbon 14 11 3 0 +21 36
2 Porto 13 10 3 0 +26 33
3 Benfica 14 10 3 1 +23 33
4 Sp Braga 13 9 1 3 +13 28
5 Maritimo 13 7 3 3 +4 24
6 Rio Ave 14 7 2 5 +5 23
7 Guimaraes 13 6 2 5 -5 20
8 Chaves 14 5 3 6 -3 18
9 Boavista 14 5 2 7 -3 17
10 Belenenses 14 5 2 7 -4 17
11 Portimonense 14 4 4 6 -2 16
12 Tondela 14 4 3 7 -4 15
13 Aves 14 3 4 7 -8 13
14 Pacos Ferreira 14 3 4 7 -12 13
15 Feirense 13 3 2 8 -7 11
16 Vitoria Setubal 13 2 4 7 -10 10
17 Moreirense 14 1 5 8 -14 8
18 Estoril 14 2 2 10 -20 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Vitoria Setubal Porto
Vasco Fernandes 🟨
25′
31′
V. Aboubakar 0–1
Alex Telles
40′
M. Marega 0–2
Nenê Bonilha 🟨
43′
45′
🟨 Diego Reyes
Half-time 0–2
46′
🔁 Jesús Corona
↦ Y. Brahimi
49′
V. Aboubakar 0–3
65′
🔁 André André
↦ Ricardo Pereira
A. Issoko 🔁
↦ Vasco Fernandes
67′
69′
V. Aboubakar 0–4
M. Marega
André Pedrosa 🔁
↦ Tomás Podstawski
73′
73′
🔁 Tiquinho
↦ Danilo Pereira
Allef 🔁
↦ João Amaral
81′
82′
M. Marega 0–5
V. Aboubakar
84′
🟨 André André
Full-time 0–5

Line-ups

Vitoria Setubal

4-2-3-1
1 Cristiano G
13 Vasco Fernandes D
21 Nuno Pinto D
5 César D
14 Pedro Pinto D
6 Tomás Podstawski M
10 João Teixeira M
8 Nenê Bonilha M
36 Edinho F
11 Costinha M
24 João Amaral M
Bench (7)
7 A. Issoko
27 André Pedrosa
33 Allef
16 André Sousa
28 Willyan
44 Bernardo Morgado
88 Pedro Trigueira

Coach: José Couceiro

Porto

4-3-1-2
12 José Sá G
2 M. Pereira D
5 Ivan Marcano D
23 D. Reyes D
13 Alex Telles D
21 Ricardo Pereira D
16 H. Herrera M
22 Danilo Pereira M
8 Y. Brahimi M
9 V. Aboubakar F
11 M. Marega F
Bench (7)
17 Jesús Corona
20 André André
29 Tiquinho
1 Casillas
7 Hernâni
27 Sérgio Oliveira
28 Felipe

Coach: Sérgio Conceição

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Tiago Martins · 155 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,47 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.