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Primeira Liga

Referee: Vasco Santos

Vitoria Setubal

T S T T T

1–2

Full-time

Guimaraes

T U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vitoria Setubal Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,8

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

2,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 30%

17%

42%

Points per game

0,8

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 54%

58%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

61% Possession 39%

18 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 3

3 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 26

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vitoria Setubal 16. · Guimaraes 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	13	10	3	0	+26	33
2	Sp Lisbon	13	10	3	0	+19	33
3	Benfica	13	9	3	1	+21	30
4	Sp Braga	13	9	1	3	+13	28
5	Maritimo	13	7	3	3	+4	24
6	Rio Ave	13	6	2	5	+4	20
7	Boavista	13	5	2	6	-1	17
8	Guimaraes	12	5	2	5	-6	17
9	Belenenses	13	5	1	7	-4	16
10	Portimonense	12	4	3	5	-1	15
11	Chaves	13	4	3	6	-4	15
12	Aves	13	3	4	6	-7	13
13	Tondela	13	3	3	7	-5	12
14	Pacos Ferreira	13	3	3	7	-12	12
15	Feirense	13	3	2	8	-7	11
16	Vitoria Setubal	12	2	4	6	-9	10
17	Moreirense	13	1	5	7	-13	8
18	Estoril	12	2	1	9	-18	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	7	6	1	0	+20	19
2	Benfica	6	6	0	0	+17	18
3	Sp Braga	7	6	0	1	+13	18
4	Sp Lisbon	7	5	2	0	+9	17
5	Maritimo	7	5	2	0	+6	17
6	Portimonense	6	4	1	1	+6	13
7	Belenenses	6	4	1	1	+5	13
8	Boavista	6	4	0	2	+0	12
9	Pacos Ferreira	6	3	2	1	+2	11
10	Rio Ave	7	3	1	3	+1	10
11	Guimaraes	6	3	1	2	-4	10
12	Vitoria Setubal	6	2	3	1	+3	9
13	Chaves	6	2	2	2	+2	8
14	Tondela	7	2	1	4	-2	7
15	Feirense	7	2	1	4	-4	7
16	Aves	7	1	2	4	-7	5
17	Moreirense	6	0	4	2	-4	4
18	Estoril	5	1	0	4	-6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+10	16
2	Porto	6	4	2	0	+6	14
3	Benfica	7	3	3	1	+4	12
4	Rio Ave	6	3	1	2	+3	10
5	Sp Braga	6	3	1	2	+0	10
6	Aves	6	2	2	2	+0	8
7	Maritimo	6	2	1	3	-2	7
8	Guimaraes	6	2	1	3	-2	7
9	Chaves	7	2	1	4	-6	7
10	Boavista	7	1	2	4	-1	5
11	Tondela	6	1	2	3	-3	5
12	Feirense	6	1	1	4	-3	4
13	Moreirense	7	1	1	5	-9	4
14	Estoril	7	1	1	5	-12	4
15	Belenenses	7	1	0	6	-9	3
16	Portimonense	6	0	2	4	-7	2
17	Vitoria Setubal	6	0	1	5	-12	1
18	Pacos Ferreira	7	0	1	6	-14	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.