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Serie A

Referee: Marco Guida

Milan

T S T U U

2–1

Full-time

Bologna

T T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Bologna

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,2

This season — Serie A · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 40%

40%

Points per game

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

53%

47%

Both score Ø 50%

47%

53%

Average goals

2,7

2,4

Scored

1,4

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

58% Possession 42%

21 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

12 Corners 7

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 8

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 8. · Bologna 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	16	12	4	0	+23	40
2	Napoli	16	12	3	1	+25	39
3	Juventus	16	12	2	2	+27	38
4	Roma	15	11	2	2	+17	35
5	Lazio	14	10	2	2	+19	32
6	Sampdoria	15	8	3	4	+8	27
7	Fiorentina	16	6	4	6	+7	22
8	Milan	15	6	3	6	+1	21
9	Bologna	15	6	3	6	+0	21
10	Chievo	16	5	6	5	-9	21
11	Atalanta	15	5	5	5	+2	20
12	Torino	15	4	8	3	-2	20
13	Udinese	15	6	0	9	-1	18
14	Cagliari	16	5	2	9	-11	17
15	Sassuolo	16	4	2	10	-18	14
16	Genoa	15	3	4	8	-7	13
17	Crotone	16	3	3	10	-20	12
18	Spal	16	2	5	9	-13	11
19	Verona	16	2	4	10	-18	10
20	Benevento	16	0	1	15	-30	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	9	7	1	1	+17	22
2	Inter	8	7	1	0	+15	22
3	Sampdoria	7	6	0	1	+13	18
4	Roma	8	6	0	2	+7	18
5	Napoli	8	5	2	1	+13	17
6	Atalanta	8	5	2	1	+9	17
7	Fiorentina	7	4	1	2	+5	13
8	Udinese	9	4	0	5	+0	12
9	Chievo	8	3	3	2	-1	12
10	Lazio	6	3	2	1	+8	11
11	Milan	7	3	2	2	+0	11
12	Torino	7	2	4	1	+3	10
13	Cagliari	8	3	1	4	-3	10
14	Bologna	8	2	3	3	-1	9
15	Spal	8	2	3	3	-2	9
16	Crotone	8	2	2	4	-6	8
17	Sassuolo	8	1	2	5	-7	5
18	Verona	8	1	1	6	-12	4
19	Genoa	7	0	2	5	-7	2
20	Benevento	8	0	1	7	-15	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	8	7	1	0	+12	22
2	Lazio	8	7	0	1	+11	21
3	Inter	8	5	3	0	+8	18
4	Roma	7	5	2	0	+10	17
5	Juventus	7	5	1	1	+10	16
6	Bologna	7	4	0	3	+1	12
7	Genoa	8	3	2	3	+0	11
8	Milan	8	3	1	4	+1	10
9	Torino	8	2	4	2	-5	10
10	Fiorentina	9	2	3	4	+2	9
11	Sampdoria	8	2	3	3	-5	9
12	Chievo	8	2	3	3	-8	9
13	Sassuolo	8	3	0	5	-11	9
14	Cagliari	8	2	1	5	-8	7
15	Udinese	6	2	0	4	-1	6
16	Verona	8	1	3	4	-6	6
17	Crotone	8	1	1	6	-14	4
18	Atalanta	7	0	3	4	-7	3
19	Spal	8	0	2	6	-11	2
20	Benevento	8	0	0	8	-15	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.