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Primeira Liga

Referee: Joao Borlido Matos

Arouca

T U S T T

1–2

Full-time

Belenenses

T S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Belenenses

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

1,5

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 32%

36%

27%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 30%

41%

18%

Both score Ø 41%

41%

Average goals

2,3

1,6

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,4

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

59% Possession 41%

17 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 6

0 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 14

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 11. · Belenenses 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	23	18	3	2	+38	57
2	Porto	23	17	5	1	+35	56
3	Sp Lisbon	23	14	5	4	+18	47
4	Sp Braga	23	11	6	6	+13	39
5	Guimaraes	23	11	6	6	+6	39
6	Maritimo	23	9	7	7	+2	34
7	Chaves	23	7	11	5	+2	32
8	Vitoria Setubal	23	8	6	9	+0	30
9	Boavista	23	7	8	8	-1	29
10	Rio Ave	23	8	5	10	-4	29
11	Arouca	22	8	3	11	-9	27
12	Belenenses	22	6	8	8	-5	26
13	Feirense	23	7	5	11	-17	26
14	Pacos Ferreira	23	6	6	11	-11	24
15	Estoril	23	5	5	13	-12	20
16	Moreirense	23	5	4	14	-15	19
17	Nacional	23	3	7	13	-17	16
18	Tondela	23	3	6	14	-23	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	12	11	1	0	+22	34
2	Benfica	12	10	2	0	+27	32
3	Sp Lisbon	11	9	1	1	+16	28
4	Sp Braga	12	8	2	2	+14	26
5	Maritimo	11	6	3	2	+6	21
6	Chaves	12	5	6	1	+6	21
7	Vitoria Setubal	12	6	3	3	+6	21
8	Pacos Ferreira	11	5	4	2	+3	19
9	Rio Ave	12	5	3	4	+0	18
10	Guimaraes	11	4	4	3	+1	16
11	Arouca	11	5	1	5	+0	16
12	Belenenses	11	3	5	3	-1	14
13	Feirense	12	4	2	6	-9	14
14	Boavista	11	3	3	5	+0	12
15	Tondela	11	3	3	5	-2	12
16	Nacional	12	2	5	5	-7	11
17	Moreirense	11	2	4	5	-4	10
18	Estoril	11	3	1	7	-6	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	11	8	1	2	+11	25
2	Guimaraes	12	7	2	3	+5	23
3	Porto	11	6	4	1	+13	22
4	Sp Lisbon	12	5	4	3	+2	19
5	Boavista	12	4	5	3	-1	17
6	Sp Braga	11	3	4	4	-1	13
7	Maritimo	12	3	4	5	-4	13
8	Belenenses	11	3	3	5	-4	12
9	Feirense	11	3	3	5	-8	12
10	Rio Ave	11	3	2	6	-4	11
11	Chaves	11	2	5	4	-4	11
12	Arouca	11	3	2	6	-9	11
13	Estoril	12	2	4	6	-6	10
14	Vitoria Setubal	11	2	3	6	-6	9
15	Moreirense	12	3	0	9	-11	9
16	Nacional	11	1	2	8	-10	5
17	Pacos Ferreira	12	1	2	9	-14	5
18	Tondela	12	0	3	9	-21	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.