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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Andre Cardoso Antunes

Chaves

S T S U U

2–0

Full-time

Nacional

S T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chaves Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 24%

29%

18%

Points per game

1,4

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

35%

47%

Both score Ø 50%

59%

41%

Average goals

2,1

2,4

Scored

1,1

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,7

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

47% Possession 53%

20 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chaves 8. · Nacional 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	18	14	3	1	+30	45
2	Porto	18	12	5	1	+26	41
3	Sp Braga	18	11	3	4	+15	36
4	Sp Lisbon	18	10	5	3	+13	35
5	Guimaraes	18	10	4	4	+9	34
6	Maritimo	18	8	3	7	+1	27
7	Vitoria Setubal	18	7	4	7	+1	25
8	Chaves	17	5	9	3	+2	24
9	Boavista	18	6	6	6	+0	24
10	Rio Ave	18	7	3	8	-3	24
11	Arouca	18	7	2	9	-5	23
12	Belenenses	18	5	5	8	-6	20
13	Feirense	18	5	3	10	-18	18
14	Pacos Ferreira	18	4	5	9	-11	17
15	Moreirense	18	5	2	11	-12	17
16	Estoril	18	4	3	11	-10	15
17	Nacional	17	3	3	11	-12	12
18	Tondela	18	2	4	12	-20	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	10	9	1	0	+17	28
2	Sp Braga	10	8	1	1	+15	25
3	Benfica	9	7	2	0	+19	23
4	Sp Lisbon	9	7	1	1	+13	22
5	Maritimo	9	5	2	2	+5	17
6	Vitoria Setubal	9	5	1	3	+5	16
7	Chaves	9	3	5	1	+2	14
8	Pacos Ferreira	9	3	4	2	+0	13
9	Rio Ave	9	4	1	4	-1	13
10	Arouca	10	4	1	5	-1	13
11	Guimaraes	8	3	3	2	+2	12
12	Belenenses	9	3	3	3	-1	12
13	Boavista	8	3	2	3	+2	11
14	Feirense	10	3	2	5	-9	11
15	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-3	8
16	Tondela	8	2	2	4	-3	8
17	Nacional	9	2	2	5	-7	8
18	Estoril	8	2	1	5	-4	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+11	22
2	Guimaraes	10	7	1	2	+7	22
3	Porto	8	3	4	1	+9	13
4	Sp Lisbon	9	3	4	2	+0	13
5	Boavista	10	3	4	3	-2	13
6	Sp Braga	8	3	2	3	+0	11
7	Rio Ave	9	3	2	4	-2	11
8	Chaves	8	2	4	2	+0	10
9	Arouca	8	3	1	4	-4	10
10	Maritimo	9	3	1	5	-4	10
11	Vitoria Setubal	9	2	3	4	-4	9
12	Moreirense	10	3	0	7	-9	9
13	Belenenses	9	2	2	5	-5	8
14	Estoril	10	2	2	6	-6	8
15	Feirense	8	2	1	5	-9	7
16	Nacional	8	1	1	6	-5	4
17	Pacos Ferreira	9	1	1	7	-11	4
18	Tondela	10	0	2	8	-17	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.