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Primeira Liga

Referee: Sergio Piscarreta

Nacional

S S U T T

2–2

Full-time

Arouca

T U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 29%

29%

Points per game

1,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

29%

36%

Both score Ø 50%

43%

57%

Average goals

1,9

2,3

Scored

0,9

1,2

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

60% Possession 40%

16 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 3

1 Offside 4

11 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 13. · Arouca 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	14	11	3	0	+23	36
2	Sp Lisbon	14	11	2	1	+17	35
3	Benfica	14	10	1	3	+24	31
4	Sp Braga	14	7	4	3	+12	25
5	Vitoria Setubal	14	5	6	3	+5	21
6	Pacos Ferreira	14	6	3	5	+4	21
7	Rio Ave	14	6	3	5	+2	21
8	Arouca	14	4	7	3	+2	19
9	Guimaraes	14	5	4	5	-4	19
10	Maritimo	14	5	2	7	-7	17
11	Estoril	14	4	4	6	-6	16
12	Belenenses	14	4	4	6	-14	16
13	Nacional	14	4	3	7	-3	15
14	Moreirense	14	3	5	6	-6	14
15	U. Madeira	14	3	5	6	-10	14
16	Boavista	14	2	4	8	-9	10
17	Academica	14	2	4	8	-15	10
18	Tondela	14	1	2	11	-15	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	8	7	1	0	+15	22
2	Benfica	8	7	0	1	+18	21
3	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+9	16
4	Rio Ave	7	5	0	2	+4	15
5	Sp Braga	7	4	2	1	+11	14
6	Belenenses	7	4	2	1	+2	14
7	Pacos Ferreira	7	4	1	2	+7	13
8	Estoril	7	3	3	1	+3	12
9	U. Madeira	8	3	3	2	-1	12
10	Nacional	6	3	2	1	+4	11
11	Arouca	7	3	2	2	+2	11
12	Maritimo	6	3	1	2	+2	10
13	Moreirense	7	2	3	2	+0	9
14	Guimaraes	7	2	2	3	+0	8
15	Vitoria Setubal	7	1	5	1	-1	8
16	Academica	7	2	2	3	-6	8
17	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-2	5
18	Tondela	8	1	1	6	-9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	8	6	1	1	+8	19
2	Porto	6	4	2	0	+8	14
3	Vitoria Setubal	7	4	1	2	+6	13
4	Sp Braga	7	3	2	2	+1	11
5	Guimaraes	7	3	2	2	-4	11
6	Benfica	6	3	1	2	+6	10
7	Arouca	7	1	5	1	+0	8
8	Pacos Ferreira	7	2	2	3	-3	8
9	Maritimo	8	2	1	5	-9	7
10	Rio Ave	7	1	3	3	-2	6
11	Moreirense	7	1	2	4	-6	5
12	Boavista	8	1	2	5	-7	5
13	Nacional	8	1	1	6	-7	4
14	Estoril	7	1	1	5	-9	4
15	Academica	7	0	2	5	-9	2
16	U. Madeira	6	0	2	4	-9	2
17	Belenenses	7	0	2	5	-16	2
18	Tondela	6	0	1	5	-6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.