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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa

Benfica

S S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Vitoria Setubal

T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Vitoria Setubal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,0

1,8

Scored

2,5

0,3

Conceded

0,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-1,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 52%

83%

21%

Points per game

2,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

69%

59%

Both score Ø 48%

41%

55%

Average goals

3,4

3,0

Scored

2,7

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

65% Possession 35%

22 Shots 8

9 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

15 Corners 4

5 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Benfica 2. · Vitoria Setubal 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	30	23	5	2	+45	74
2	Benfica	29	24	1	4	+58	73
3	Porto	30	20	4	6	+32	64
4	Sp Braga	30	15	9	6	+23	54
5	Arouca	30	11	13	6	+5	46
6	Rio Ave	30	13	7	10	+2	46
7	Pacos Ferreira	30	11	9	10	+1	42
8	Estoril	30	12	6	12	-1	42
9	Nacional	30	10	7	13	-9	37
10	Belenenses	30	9	10	11	-20	37
11	Guimaraes	30	8	11	11	-10	35
12	Maritimo	30	10	5	15	-13	35
13	Vitoria Setubal	29	6	11	12	-13	29
14	Moreirense	30	7	8	15	-15	29
15	Boavista	30	6	8	16	-15	26
16	U. Madeira	30	6	8	16	-21	26
17	Academica	30	5	9	16	-23	24
18	Tondela	30	5	5	20	-26	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	14	12	0	2	+34	36
2	Sp Lisbon	15	11	3	1	+20	36
3	Porto	15	11	2	2	+20	35
4	Sp Braga	15	10	4	1	+27	34
5	Rio Ave	15	9	1	5	+5	28
6	Estoril	15	8	3	4	+7	27
7	Nacional	15	8	3	4	+6	27
8	Arouca	15	7	5	3	+7	26
9	Maritimo	15	7	2	6	+5	23
10	Pacos Ferreira	15	6	4	5	+4	22
11	U. Madeira	15	5	6	4	+1	21
12	Belenenses	15	5	5	5	-6	20
13	Academica	15	5	4	6	-7	19
14	Guimaraes	15	4	6	5	+1	18
15	Vitoria Setubal	15	2	8	5	-9	14
16	Boavista	15	2	5	8	-9	11
17	Moreirense	15	2	4	9	-10	10
18	Tondela	15	2	3	10	-13	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	15	12	2	1	+25	38
2	Benfica	15	12	1	2	+24	37
3	Porto	15	9	2	4	+12	29
4	Arouca	15	4	8	3	-2	20
5	Pacos Ferreira	15	5	5	5	-3	20
6	Sp Braga	15	5	5	5	-4	20
7	Moreirense	15	5	4	6	-5	19
8	Rio Ave	15	4	6	5	-3	18
9	Guimaraes	15	4	5	6	-11	17
10	Belenenses	15	4	5	6	-14	17
11	Vitoria Setubal	14	4	3	7	-4	15
12	Boavista	15	4	3	8	-6	15
13	Estoril	15	4	3	8	-8	15
14	Maritimo	15	3	3	9	-18	12
15	Tondela	15	3	2	10	-13	11
16	Nacional	15	2	4	9	-15	10
17	Academica	15	0	5	10	-16	5
18	U. Madeira	15	1	2	12	-22	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.