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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hugo Miguel

Vitoria Setubal

T T U T T

0–1

Full-time

Tondela

T U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vitoria Setubal Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,8

2,5

Scored

0,5

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 19%

20%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

60%

50%

Both score Ø 55%

57%

53%

Average goals

3,0

2,6

Scored

1,3

0,9

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

53% Possession 47%

7 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 3

1 Offside 4

18 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vitoria Setubal 13. · Tondela 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	31	24	5	2	+47	77
2	Benfica	30	25	1	4	+59	76
3	Porto	31	21	4	6	+33	67
4	Sp Braga	31	15	9	7	+22	54
5	Arouca	30	11	13	6	+5	46
6	Rio Ave	30	13	7	10	+2	46
7	Pacos Ferreira	31	12	9	10	+2	45
8	Estoril	30	12	6	12	-1	42
9	Nacional	30	10	7	13	-9	37
10	Belenenses	31	9	10	12	-21	37
11	Guimaraes	30	8	11	11	-10	35
12	Maritimo	30	10	5	15	-13	35
13	Vitoria Setubal	30	6	11	13	-14	29
14	Boavista	31	7	8	16	-14	29
15	Moreirense	30	7	8	15	-15	29
16	U. Madeira	31	6	8	17	-23	26
17	Academica	31	5	9	17	-24	24
18	Tondela	30	5	5	20	-26	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	13	0	2	+35	39
2	Sp Lisbon	16	12	3	1	+22	39
3	Porto	15	11	2	2	+20	35
4	Sp Braga	15	10	4	1	+27	34
5	Rio Ave	15	9	1	5	+5	28
6	Estoril	15	8	3	4	+7	27
7	Nacional	15	8	3	4	+6	27
8	Arouca	15	7	5	3	+7	26
9	Pacos Ferreira	16	7	4	5	+5	25
10	Maritimo	15	7	2	6	+5	23
11	U. Madeira	15	5	6	4	+1	21
12	Belenenses	15	5	5	5	-6	20
13	Academica	16	5	4	7	-8	19
14	Guimaraes	15	4	6	5	+1	18
15	Boavista	16	3	5	8	-8	14
16	Vitoria Setubal	15	2	8	5	-9	14
17	Moreirense	15	2	4	9	-10	10
18	Tondela	15	2	3	10	-13	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	15	12	2	1	+25	38
2	Benfica	15	12	1	2	+24	37
3	Porto	16	10	2	4	+13	32
4	Arouca	15	4	8	3	-2	20
5	Pacos Ferreira	15	5	5	5	-3	20
6	Sp Braga	16	5	5	6	-5	20
7	Moreirense	15	5	4	6	-5	19
8	Rio Ave	15	4	6	5	-3	18
9	Guimaraes	15	4	5	6	-11	17
10	Belenenses	16	4	5	7	-15	17
11	Vitoria Setubal	15	4	3	8	-5	15
12	Boavista	15	4	3	8	-6	15
13	Estoril	15	4	3	8	-8	15
14	Maritimo	15	3	3	9	-18	12
15	Tondela	15	3	2	10	-13	11
16	Nacional	15	2	4	9	-15	10
17	Academica	15	0	5	10	-16	5
18	U. Madeira	16	1	2	13	-24	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.