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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa

Sp Lisbon

U S S S U

5–1

Full-time

Guimaraes

U U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,2

1,8

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,2

1,8

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

71% Possession 29%

21 Shots 9

8 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 5

5 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 3. · Guimaraes 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	7	5	2	0	+12	17
2	Rio Ave	7	4	2	1	+5	14
3	Sp Lisbon	6	4	2	0	+5	14
4	Sp Braga	7	4	1	2	+8	13
5	Benfica	6	4	0	2	+12	12
6	Estoril	7	4	0	3	-2	12
7	Pacos Ferreira	7	3	2	2	-2	11
8	Vitoria Setubal	7	2	4	1	+2	10
9	Arouca	7	2	4	1	+1	10
10	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Boavista	7	2	2	3	-3	8
12	Nacional	7	2	1	4	-2	7
13	Belenenses	7	1	4	2	-8	7
14	U. Madeira	6	1	3	2	-1	6
15	Guimaraes	6	1	3	2	-3	6
16	Tondela	7	1	1	5	-4	4
17	Moreirense	7	0	3	4	-7	3
18	Academica	7	1	0	6	-11	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+14	12
2	Porto	4	4	0	0	+10	12
3	Sp Braga	4	3	1	0	+9	10
4	Estoril	3	3	0	0	+4	9
5	Rio Ave	4	3	0	1	+2	9
6	Maritimo	3	2	1	0	+4	7
7	Nacional	3	2	1	0	+3	7
8	Pacos Ferreira	4	2	1	1	+0	7
9	Vitoria Setubal	4	1	3	0	+1	6
10	Belenenses	3	1	2	0	+2	5
11	U. Madeira	3	1	2	0	+1	5
12	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
13	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Boavista	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Arouca	3	1	1	1	-1	4
16	Tondela	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Academica	4	1	0	3	-7	3
18	Moreirense	3	0	2	1	-2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+4	10
2	Arouca	4	1	3	0	+2	6
3	Rio Ave	3	1	2	0	+3	5
4	Porto	3	1	2	0	+2	5
5	Vitoria Setubal	3	1	1	1	+1	4
6	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	1	1	-2	4
7	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-3	4
8	Sp Braga	3	1	0	2	-1	3
9	Estoril	4	1	0	3	-6	3
10	Guimaraes	3	0	2	1	-3	2
11	Belenenses	4	0	2	2	-10	2
12	U. Madeira	3	0	1	2	-2	1
13	Moreirense	4	0	1	3	-5	1
14	Maritimo	4	0	1	3	-6	1
15	Benfica	2	0	0	2	-2	0
16	Tondela	3	0	0	3	-3	0
17	Academica	3	0	0	3	-4	0
18	Nacional	4	0	0	4	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.