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Championship

Referee: Darren Bond

Aston Villa

U T T S T

1–1

Full-time

Brighton

S S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,5

This season — Championship · 45/45 matches

Win Ø 49%

36%

62%

Points per game

1,4

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

29%

49%

Both score Ø 41%

44%

38%

Average goals

2,1

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,6

Conceded

1,0

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

52% Possession 48%

14 Shots 15

10 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 9

7 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 12. · Brighton 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	45	28	8	9	+34	92
2	Newcastle	45	28	7	10	+42	91
3	Reading	42	24	7	11	+7	79
4	Huddersfield	42	24	6	12	+3	78
5	Sheffield Weds	43	22	9	12	+13	75
6	Fulham	43	20	14	9	+23	74
7	Leeds	45	22	8	15	+14	74
8	Norwich	45	19	10	16	+12	67
9	Derby	45	18	12	15	+4	66
10	Brentford	45	18	10	17	+12	64
11	Preston	45	16	14	15	+2	62
12	Aston Villa	45	16	13	16	-1	61
13	Cardiff	45	16	11	18	-4	59
14	Barnsley	45	15	13	17	+0	58
15	Wolves	45	15	10	20	-5	55
16	Ipswich	45	13	16	16	-7	55
17	Bristol City	45	15	9	21	-5	54
18	QPR	45	15	8	22	-10	53
19	Burton Albion	45	13	13	19	-12	52
20	Birmingham	45	12	14	19	-20	50
21	Nott'm Forest	45	13	9	23	-13	48
22	Blackburn	45	11	15	19	-14	48
23	Wigan	45	10	11	24	-17	41
24	Rotherham	45	5	7	33	-58	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	23	17	3	3	+32	54
2	Reading	22	15	5	2	+18	50
3	Norwich	22	14	4	4	+29	46
4	Leeds	23	14	4	5	+16	46
5	Newcastle	22	14	3	5	+23	45
6	Sheffield Weds	21	14	2	5	+13	44
7	Huddersfield	20	14	2	4	+11	44
8	Aston Villa	22	12	7	3	+13	43
9	Derby	23	11	8	4	+13	41
10	Preston	23	11	6	6	+14	39
11	Brentford	22	11	5	6	+19	38
12	Nott'm Forest	22	11	4	7	+9	37
13	Bristol City	22	11	4	7	+8	37
14	Cardiff	23	11	4	8	+5	37
15	Fulham	22	9	8	5	+8	35
16	Ipswich	23	8	10	5	+6	34
17	Blackburn	23	8	8	7	-1	32
18	Burton Albion	22	9	4	9	+0	31
19	QPR	23	9	4	10	-2	31
20	Barnsley	23	6	11	6	-1	29
21	Birmingham	23	8	5	10	-6	29
22	Wolves	22	7	4	11	-6	25
23	Wigan	22	5	7	10	-7	22
24	Rotherham	22	5	5	12	-11	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	23	14	4	5	+19	46
2	Fulham	21	11	6	4	+15	39
3	Brighton	22	11	5	6	+2	38
4	Huddersfield	22	10	4	8	-8	34
5	Sheffield Weds	22	8	7	7	+0	31
6	Wolves	23	8	6	9	+1	30
7	Barnsley	22	9	2	11	+1	29
8	Reading	20	9	2	9	-11	29
9	Leeds	22	8	4	10	-2	28
10	Brentford	23	7	5	11	-7	26
11	Derby	22	7	4	11	-9	25
12	Preston	22	5	8	9	-12	23
13	QPR	22	6	4	12	-8	22
14	Cardiff	22	5	7	10	-9	22
15	Burton Albion	23	4	9	10	-12	21
16	Ipswich	22	5	6	11	-13	21
17	Birmingham	22	4	9	9	-14	21
18	Norwich	23	5	6	12	-17	21
19	Wigan	23	5	4	14	-10	19
20	Aston Villa	23	4	6	13	-14	18
21	Bristol City	23	4	5	14	-13	17
22	Blackburn	22	3	7	12	-13	16
23	Nott'm Forest	23	2	5	16	-22	11
24	Rotherham	23	0	2	21	-47	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.