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Ligue 1

Referee: Antony Gautier

Marseille

U U S U S

2–1

Full-time

Nice

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Nice

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

1,7

2,0

Conceded

0,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+1,0

This season — Ligue 1 · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 53%

43%

63%

Points per game

1,6

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

51%

49%

Both score Ø 52%

46%

57%

Average goals

2,6

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,1

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

45% Possession 55%

18 Shots 17

7 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 8

5 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 6. · Nice 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	35	27	5	3	+69	86
2	Paris SG	36	26	5	5	+51	83
3	Nice	35	22	11	2	+30	77
4	Lyon	36	19	4	13	+27	61
5	Bordeaux	36	15	12	9	+10	57
6	Marseille	35	15	10	10	+14	55
7	St Etienne	35	12	14	9	+8	50
8	Nantes	36	13	9	14	-14	48
9	Guingamp	36	13	8	15	-5	47
10	Rennes	36	11	14	11	-6	47
11	Lille	36	12	7	17	-6	43
12	Toulouse	36	10	12	14	-4	42
13	Metz	36	11	9	16	-32	42
14	Angers	36	11	7	18	-13	40
15	Montpellier	36	10	9	17	-14	39
16	Caen	36	10	6	20	-28	36
17	Lorient	36	10	5	21	-24	35
18	Dijon	36	7	12	17	-14	33
19	Nancy	36	8	8	20	-23	32
20	Bastia	36	7	11	18	-26	32

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	17	15	1	1	+44	46
2	Nice	18	14	4	0	+25	46
3	Paris SG	18	13	5	0	+35	44
4	Marseille	17	11	4	2	+18	37
5	Lyon	18	12	0	6	+20	36
6	Guingamp	18	11	3	4	+14	36
7	Rennes	18	10	6	2	+12	36
8	Bordeaux	18	9	5	4	+8	32
9	St Etienne	18	7	9	2	+11	30
10	Toulouse	18	8	5	5	+10	29
11	Montpellier	18	8	5	5	+8	29
12	Metz	18	7	6	5	-7	27
13	Angers	18	7	5	6	+4	26
14	Nantes	18	7	4	7	-8	25
15	Dijon	18	6	6	6	+4	24
16	Lorient	18	7	3	8	-4	24
17	Caen	18	7	2	9	-15	23
18	Bastia	18	4	10	4	+1	22
19	Lille	18	6	3	9	-3	21
20	Nancy	18	6	3	9	-4	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	18	12	4	2	+25	40
2	Paris SG	18	13	0	5	+16	39
3	Nice	17	8	7	2	+5	31
4	Lyon	18	7	4	7	+7	25
5	Bordeaux	18	6	7	5	+2	25
6	Nantes	18	6	5	7	-6	23
7	Lille	18	6	4	8	-3	22
8	St Etienne	17	5	5	7	-3	20
9	Marseille	18	4	6	8	-4	18
10	Metz	18	4	3	11	-25	15
11	Angers	18	4	2	12	-17	14
12	Caen	18	3	4	11	-13	13
13	Toulouse	18	2	7	9	-14	13
14	Rennes	18	1	8	9	-18	11
15	Guingamp	18	2	5	11	-19	11
16	Nancy	18	2	5	11	-19	11
17	Lorient	18	3	2	13	-20	11
18	Montpellier	18	2	4	12	-22	10
19	Bastia	18	3	1	14	-27	10
20	Dijon	18	1	6	11	-18	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.