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Eredivisie

Referee: Christaan Bax

Excelsior

T S U U T

2–2

Full-time

Nijmegen

U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Nijmegen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,7

3,2

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

2,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

This season — Eredivisie · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

0,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

69%

44%

Both score Ø 60%

69%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,6

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,9

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

49% Possession 51%

12 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 8

5 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 14. · Nijmegen 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	17	13	3	1	+35	42
2	Ajax	16	11	3	2	+22	36
3	PSV Eindhoven	16	9	6	1	+17	33
4	Heerenveen	16	8	4	4	+12	28
5	AZ Alkmaar	15	6	7	2	+7	25
6	Utrecht	15	6	6	3	+5	24
7	Twente	17	6	6	5	+3	24
8	Vitesse	17	6	5	6	+2	23
9	Willem II	17	4	7	6	-7	19
10	Heracles	16	4	6	6	-7	18
11	Nijmegen	16	4	6	6	-10	18
12	Sparta Rotterdam	16	4	5	7	-6	17
13	Groningen	15	4	4	7	-4	16
14	Excelsior	16	4	3	9	-9	15
15	Den Haag	16	4	2	10	-14	14
16	Zwolle	16	3	5	8	-18	14
17	Roda	17	1	10	6	-13	13
18	Go Ahead Eagles	16	3	2	11	-15	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	9	7	2	0	+22	23
2	Ajax	8	6	1	1	+13	19
3	Twente	9	4	3	2	+5	15
4	PSV Eindhoven	8	4	3	1	+4	15
5	Heerenveen	7	4	2	1	+5	14
6	Utrecht	8	4	2	2	+3	14
7	AZ Alkmaar	8	3	4	1	+4	13
8	Nijmegen	9	3	4	2	+0	13
9	Sparta Rotterdam	8	3	3	2	+2	12
10	Heracles	7	3	2	2	+2	11
11	Vitesse	8	3	2	3	+1	11
12	Excelsior	8	3	1	4	-1	10
13	Go Ahead Eagles	8	3	1	4	-2	10
14	Willem II	9	2	4	3	-4	10
15	Zwolle	9	2	3	4	-10	9
16	Groningen	7	2	2	3	-6	8
17	Den Haag	7	2	1	4	-4	7
18	Roda	8	0	5	3	-5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	8	6	1	1	+13	19
2	PSV Eindhoven	8	5	3	0	+13	18
3	Ajax	8	5	2	1	+9	17
4	Heerenveen	9	4	2	3	+7	14
5	AZ Alkmaar	7	3	3	1	+3	12
6	Vitesse	9	3	3	3	+1	12
7	Utrecht	7	2	4	1	+2	10
8	Twente	8	2	3	3	-2	9
9	Willem II	8	2	3	3	-3	9
10	Groningen	8	2	2	4	+2	8
11	Roda	9	1	5	3	-8	8
12	Heracles	9	1	4	4	-9	7
13	Den Haag	9	2	1	6	-10	7
14	Sparta Rotterdam	8	1	2	5	-8	5
15	Excelsior	8	1	2	5	-8	5
16	Zwolle	7	1	2	4	-8	5
17	Nijmegen	7	1	2	4	-10	5
18	Go Ahead Eagles	8	0	1	7	-13	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.