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Eredivisie
Referee: Bjorn Kuipers
Heracles
T S U U S
3–6
Full-time
AZ Alkmaar
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heracles AZ Alkmaar
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 58%
33%
83%
Points per game
1,5
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
1,8
3,2
Scored
0,8
2,3
Conceded
1,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+1,5
This season — Eredivisie · 20/22 matches
Win Ø 48%
50%
45%
Points per game
1,8
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
45%
64%
Both score Ø 48%
40%
55%
Average goals
2,4
3,0
Scored
1,4
1,6
Conceded
1,1
1,4
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

63% Possession 37%
16 Shots 20
7 Shots on target 8
3 Blocked shots 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
2 Corners 6
3 Offside 2
0 Free kicks against 0
3 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Heracles 4. · AZ Alkmaar 6.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 PSV Eindhoven 22 16 5 1 +33 53
2 Ajax 22 16 4 2 +37 52
3 Feyenoord 22 11 3 8 +11 36
4 Heracles 20 10 5 5 +6 35
5 Nijmegen 22 10 5 7 +4 35
6 AZ Alkmaar 22 10 4 8 +4 34
7 Groningen 21 9 7 5 +1 34
8 Vitesse 22 9 6 7 +18 33
9 Zwolle 20 8 5 7 +3 29
10 Heerenveen 22 8 5 9 -8 29
11 Den Haag 22 6 9 7 -1 27
12 Utrecht 20 7 5 8 +0 26
13 Roda 22 5 9 8 -15 24
14 Twente 22 6 4 12 -19 22
15 Willem II 22 4 9 9 -4 21
16 Excelsior 22 4 7 11 -16 19
17 Cambuur 23 2 7 14 -31 13
18 De Graafschap 22 3 3 16 -23 12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

26. Sep -15 AZ Alkmaar – Heracles 3–1

Match report

Heracles AZ Alkmaar
4′
V. Janssen 0–1
Joey Pelupessy 🟨
32′
32′
M. Henriksen 0–2
D. Vujićević 🔁
↦ M. Heerkes
33′
34′
J. van Overeem 0–3
D. dos Santos
1–3 T. Bruns
B. Darri
39′
Half-time 1–3
Ramon Zomer 🟨
49′
64′
A. Jahanbakhsh 1–4
2–4 M. Fledderus
B. Darri
67′
68′
🔁 C. Ortiz
↦ J. van Overeem
Gonzalo García 🔁
↦ T. Kada
70′
Brahim Darri 🟨
71′
3–4 W. Weghorst
J. Pelupessy
74′
80′
T. Bruns 4–4
own goal
84′
B. Rienstra 4–5
A. Jahanbakhsh
85′
🔁 T. Haye
↦ D. dos Santos
86′
🔁 T. Ouwejan
↦ R. Haps
P. van Ooijen 🔁
↦ T. Bruns
90′
Full-time 4–5

Line-ups

Heracles

1 B. Castro G
18 R. Zomer D
3 M. te Wierik D
23 M. Fledderus D
8 I. Bel Hassani M
10 T. Bruns M
14 J. Pelupessy M
24 M. Heerkes M
7 B. Darri F
19 W. Weghorst F
11 T. Kada F
Bench (7)
17 D. Vujićević
22 Gonzalo García
20 P. van Ooijen
4 G. Bosz
15 J. Navrátil
9 P. Gladon
25 R. Fij

AZ Alkmaar

1 S. Rochet G
12 R. Vlaar D
2 M. Johansson D
24 R. Haps D
30 S. Wuytens D
10 M. Henriksen M
17 B. Rienstra M
8 J. van Overeem M
19 D. dos Santos F
9 A. Jahanbakhsh F
18 V. Janssen F
Bench (7)
6 C. Ortiz
20 T. Haye
38 T. Ouwejan
23 D. Luckassen
16 G. Coutinho
28 L. Garcia
21 R. Mühren

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Bjorn Kuipers · 97 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
16,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.