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Eredivisie

Referee: Serdar Gozubuyuk

Ajax

U U S S S

4–1

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 84%

67%

100%

Points per game

2,3

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

4,7

Scored

1,7

3,5

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+2,3

This season — Eredivisie · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 63%

75%

50%

Points per game

2,4

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

58%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

42%

58%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

2,3

1,9

Conceded

0,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

46% Possession 54%

13 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 5

0 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 2. · AZ Alkmaar 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	25	19	5	1	+40	62
2	Ajax	24	18	4	2	+41	58
3	Feyenoord	25	12	4	9	+10	40
4	AZ Alkmaar	24	12	4	8	+10	40
5	Vitesse	25	10	7	8	+20	37
6	Nijmegen	25	10	6	9	-1	36
7	Zwolle	23	10	5	8	+6	35
8	Heracles	23	10	5	8	-4	35
9	Groningen	24	9	7	8	-5	34
10	Heerenveen	25	9	6	10	-10	33
11	Twente	25	9	4	12	-13	31
12	Den Haag	25	7	9	9	-3	30
13	Utrecht	22	8	5	9	+0	29
14	Roda	25	6	10	9	-11	28
15	Willem II	25	5	10	10	-4	25
16	Excelsior	25	5	7	13	-19	22
17	Cambuur	25	3	7	15	-33	16
18	De Graafschap	25	3	5	17	-24	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	10	2	0	+19	32
2	Ajax	12	10	1	1	+27	31
3	Nijmegen	13	8	2	3	+6	26
4	Groningen	12	7	3	2	+8	24
5	Vitesse	13	7	2	4	+16	23
6	Feyenoord	12	7	2	3	+11	23
7	AZ Alkmaar	13	7	2	4	+7	23
8	Heracles	12	7	2	3	+2	23
9	Twente	12	7	1	4	+4	22
10	Zwolle	11	6	2	3	+3	20
11	Heerenveen	12	5	4	3	+1	19
12	Utrecht	10	5	3	2	+4	18
13	Willem II	12	3	6	3	+3	15
14	Roda	13	3	6	4	-4	15
15	Den Haag	12	2	7	3	-2	13
16	Excelsior	13	3	3	7	-9	12
17	Cambuur	13	2	4	7	-16	10
18	De Graafschap	13	2	3	8	-9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	9	3	1	+21	30
2	Ajax	12	8	3	1	+14	27
3	AZ Alkmaar	11	5	2	4	+3	17
4	Feyenoord	13	5	2	6	-1	17
5	Den Haag	13	5	2	6	-1	17
6	Zwolle	12	4	3	5	+3	15
7	Vitesse	12	3	5	4	+4	14
8	Heerenveen	13	4	2	7	-11	14
9	Roda	12	3	4	5	-7	13
10	Heracles	11	3	3	5	-6	12
11	Utrecht	12	3	2	7	-4	11
12	Willem II	13	2	4	7	-7	10
13	Nijmegen	12	2	4	6	-7	10
14	Excelsior	12	2	4	6	-10	10
15	Groningen	12	2	4	6	-13	10
16	Twente	13	2	3	8	-17	9
17	Cambuur	12	1	3	8	-17	6
18	De Graafschap	12	1	2	9	-15	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.