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Ligue 1

Referee: Benoît Bastien

Lyon

U U U S S

2–0

Full-time

Toulouse

U U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lyon Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 38%

53%

23%

Points per game

1,9

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

63%

40%

Both score Ø 55%

60%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,3

Scored

2,1

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

59% Possession 41%

21 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 6

9 Blocked shots 2

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 3

3 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lyon 4. · Toulouse 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	31	27	2	2	+74	83
2	Monaco	30	20	6	4	+42	66
3	Marseille	31	18	8	5	+26	62
4	Lyon	30	16	9	5	+26	57
5	Montpellier	31	10	15	6	+5	45
6	Rennes	30	13	6	11	+3	45
7	Nice	31	13	6	12	-1	45
8	Nantes	31	12	8	11	-3	44
9	St Etienne	31	11	9	11	-8	42
10	Guingamp	31	10	8	13	-14	38
11	Dijon	31	10	8	13	-16	38
12	Bordeaux	31	10	7	14	-7	37
13	Angers	31	8	11	12	-6	35
14	Caen	31	10	5	16	-16	35
15	Amiens	31	9	7	15	-8	34
16	Strasbourg	31	8	9	14	-19	33
17	Toulouse	30	7	9	14	-12	30
18	Troyes	31	8	5	18	-17	29
19	Lille	31	7	7	17	-20	28
20	Metz	31	5	7	19	-29	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	16	0	0	+51	48
2	Monaco	16	13	2	1	+28	41
3	Marseille	15	9	4	2	+19	31
4	Dijon	16	9	3	4	+7	30
5	Lyon	14	7	5	2	+9	26
6	Nice	16	8	2	6	+2	26
7	St Etienne	15	6	6	3	+1	24
8	Guingamp	16	6	6	4	+0	24
9	Caen	16	7	3	6	-1	24
10	Montpellier	16	5	8	3	+4	23
11	Strasbourg	16	6	5	5	+0	23
12	Nantes	15	7	2	6	-1	23
13	Bordeaux	15	6	4	5	+0	22
14	Troyes	16	6	3	7	-3	21
15	Toulouse	15	5	5	5	+1	20
16	Rennes	14	6	2	6	-2	20
17	Amiens	15	5	4	6	+0	19
18	Angers	15	5	4	6	-3	19
19	Lille	16	4	5	7	-6	17
20	Metz	15	3	3	9	-11	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	11	2	2	+23	35
2	Lyon	16	9	4	3	+17	31
3	Marseille	16	9	4	3	+7	31
4	Monaco	14	7	4	3	+14	25
5	Rennes	16	7	4	5	+5	25
6	Montpellier	15	5	7	3	+1	22
7	Nantes	16	5	6	5	-2	21
8	Nice	15	5	4	6	-3	19
9	St Etienne	16	5	3	8	-9	18
10	Angers	16	3	7	6	-3	16
11	Bordeaux	16	4	3	9	-7	15
12	Amiens	16	4	3	9	-8	15
13	Guingamp	15	4	2	9	-14	14
14	Lille	15	3	2	10	-14	11
15	Caen	15	3	2	10	-15	11
16	Toulouse	15	2	4	9	-13	10
17	Metz	16	2	4	10	-18	10
18	Strasbourg	15	2	4	9	-19	10
19	Troyes	15	2	2	11	-14	8
20	Dijon	15	1	5	9	-23	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.