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Ligue 1

Referee: Said Ennjimi

Montpellier

T T S T U

2–0

Full-time

Toulouse

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Montpellier Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,0

2,2

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,8

This season — Ligue 1 · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 22%

28%

16%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

44%

52%

Both score Ø 52%

48%

56%

Average goals

2,4

2,7

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

40% Possession 60%

7 Shots 9

2 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 4

1 Offside 4

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Montpellier 18. · Toulouse 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	26	22	4	0	+51	70
2	Monaco	25	12	9	4	+8	45
3	Nice	25	11	6	8	+9	39
4	St Etienne	25	12	3	10	+2	39
5	Rennes	26	9	11	6	+3	38
6	Angers	26	10	7	9	+1	37
7	Lyon	25	10	6	9	+7	36
8	Nantes	25	9	9	7	+1	36
9	Caen	25	11	3	11	-5	36
10	Marseille	25	8	10	7	+9	34
11	Bordeaux	25	8	9	8	-5	33
12	Lille	26	6	13	7	+0	31
13	Lorient	25	7	10	8	-2	31
14	Guingamp	25	8	7	10	-4	31
15	Bastia	25	9	4	12	-5	31
16	Reims	25	7	8	10	-6	29
17	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	25	6	9	10	-9	27
18	Montpellier	25	7	5	13	-3	26
19	Toulouse	25	4	9	12	-17	21
20	Troyes	25	1	8	16	-35	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	10	2	0	+29	32
2	Bastia	13	9	0	4	+9	27
3	Bordeaux	13	7	3	3	+6	24
4	Monaco	13	6	5	2	+6	23
5	St Etienne	12	7	2	3	+6	23
6	Nice	12	7	1	4	+7	22
7	Lyon	12	6	3	3	+10	21
8	Angers	13	5	6	2	+4	21
9	Lorient	13	5	5	3	+6	20
10	Guingamp	12	5	4	3	+6	19
11	Lille	13	5	4	4	+3	19
12	Nantes	12	5	4	3	+2	19
13	Caen	13	6	1	6	-6	19
14	Reims	13	4	5	4	+1	17
15	Rennes	13	4	5	4	-1	17
16	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	12	3	6	3	-2	15
17	Montpellier	13	5	0	8	-3	15
18	Marseille	13	2	7	4	+5	13
19	Toulouse	12	2	6	4	-1	12
20	Troyes	13	0	6	7	-11	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	12	2	0	+22	38
2	Monaco	12	6	4	2	+2	22
3	Rennes	13	5	6	2	+4	21
4	Marseille	12	6	3	3	+4	21
5	Nice	13	4	5	4	+2	17
6	Caen	12	5	2	5	+1	17
7	Nantes	13	4	5	4	-1	17
8	Angers	13	5	1	7	-3	16
9	St Etienne	13	5	1	7	-4	16
10	Lyon	13	4	3	6	-3	15
11	Lille	13	1	9	3	-3	12
12	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	13	3	3	7	-7	12
13	Reims	12	3	3	6	-7	12
14	Guingamp	13	3	3	7	-10	12
15	Montpellier	12	2	5	5	+0	11
16	Lorient	12	2	5	5	-8	11
17	Bordeaux	12	1	6	5	-11	9
18	Toulouse	13	2	3	8	-16	9
19	Troyes	12	1	2	9	-24	5
20	Bastia	12	0	4	8	-14	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.