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Ligue 1

Referee: Sébastien Desiage

Strasbourg

S U U S S

2–1

Full-time

Toulouse

U T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Strasbourg Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 29%

29%

Points per game

1,2

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

71%

35%

Both score Ø 47%

53%

41%

Average goals

2,9

2,3

Scored

1,3

0,9

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

48% Possession 52%

9 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 5

10 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Strasbourg 12. · Toulouse 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	18	15	2	1	+41	47
2	Monaco	18	12	2	4	+26	38
3	Lyon	17	10	5	2	+23	35
4	Marseille	17	10	5	2	+16	35
5	Nantes	17	8	3	6	-2	27
6	Rennes	18	7	4	7	-1	25
7	Montpellier	17	5	8	4	+4	23
8	Nice	17	7	2	8	-6	23
9	Caen	17	7	2	8	-7	23
10	Guingamp	17	6	4	7	-4	22
11	Amiens	17	6	3	8	-3	21
12	Strasbourg	17	5	6	6	-5	21
13	Dijon	17	6	3	8	-7	21
14	Bordeaux	17	5	5	7	-4	20
15	St Etienne	18	5	5	8	-14	20
16	Toulouse	17	5	4	8	-7	19
17	Troyes	17	5	3	9	-6	18
18	Lille	17	5	3	9	-10	18
19	Angers	17	2	9	6	-8	15
20	Metz	17	1	2	14	-26	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	9	0	0	+25	27
2	Monaco	9	7	1	1	+18	22
3	Marseille	8	5	2	1	+12	17
4	Guingamp	9	4	4	1	+6	16
5	Nantes	8	5	1	2	+3	16
6	Dijon	9	5	1	3	+2	16
7	Caen	9	5	1	3	+1	16
8	Lyon	8	4	3	1	+7	15
9	Bordeaux	8	4	2	2	+3	14
10	Toulouse	8	4	2	2	+3	14
11	Montpellier	9	3	4	2	+4	13
12	Amiens	8	4	1	3	+3	13
13	Nice	9	4	1	4	+0	13
14	Rennes	9	4	1	4	-1	13
15	St Etienne	10	3	4	3	-4	13
16	Strasbourg	8	3	3	2	+3	12
17	Lille	8	3	2	3	-1	11
18	Troyes	9	3	2	4	-1	11
19	Angers	8	0	4	4	-8	4
20	Metz	9	0	1	8	-17	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	6	2	1	+16	20
2	Lyon	9	6	2	1	+16	20
3	Marseille	9	5	3	1	+4	18
4	Monaco	9	5	1	3	+8	16
5	Rennes	9	3	3	3	+0	12
6	Angers	9	2	5	2	+0	11
7	Nantes	9	3	2	4	-5	11
8	Montpellier	8	2	4	2	+0	10
9	Nice	8	3	1	4	-6	10
10	Strasbourg	9	2	3	4	-8	9
11	Amiens	9	2	2	5	-6	8
12	Troyes	8	2	1	5	-5	7
13	Caen	8	2	1	5	-8	7
14	Lille	9	2	1	6	-9	7
15	St Etienne	8	2	1	5	-10	7
16	Bordeaux	9	1	3	5	-7	6
17	Guingamp	8	2	0	6	-10	6
18	Dijon	8	1	2	5	-9	5
19	Toulouse	9	1	2	6	-10	5
20	Metz	8	1	1	6	-9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.