La Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Ath Madrid
La Coruna
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Barcelona
|
29 | 24 | 3 | 2 | +62 | 75 |
| 2 |
Ath Madrid
|
28 | 20 | 4 | 4 | +30 | 64 |
| 3 |
Real Madrid
|
28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | +54 | 60 |
| 4 |
Villarreal
|
28 | 15 | 8 | 5 | +14 | 53 |
| 5 |
Sevilla
|
28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | +10 | 45 |
| 6 |
Celta
|
29 | 13 | 6 | 10 | -10 | 45 |
| 7 |
Ath Bilbao
|
28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | +8 | 44 |
| 8 |
Eibar
|
28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | +0 | 36 |
| 9 |
Malaga
|
29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | +0 | 36 |
| 10 |
Sociedad
|
29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -3 | 35 |
| 11 |
Valencia
|
28 | 8 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 34 |
| 12 |
Betis
|
28 | 8 | 10 | 10 | -10 | 34 |
| 13 |
La Coruna
|
28 | 6 | 15 | 7 | -2 | 33 |
| 14 |
Espanol
|
28 | 9 | 4 | 15 | -26 | 31 |
| 15 |
Las Palmas
|
28 | 8 | 6 | 14 | -10 | 30 |
| 16 |
Getafe
|
29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | -24 | 27 |
| 17 |
Vallecano
|
28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | -22 | 26 |
| 18 |
Granada
|
28 | 7 | 5 | 16 | -24 | 26 |
| 19 |
Sp Gijon
|
29 | 6 | 6 | 17 | -21 | 24 |
| 20 |
Levante
|
28 | 5 | 6 | 17 | -26 | 21 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
J. Oblak
G
J. Giménez
D
Koke
M
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Valencia
Ath Madrid
Ath Madrid
Sociedad
Real Madrid
Ath Madrid
Ath Madrid
Villarreal
Getafe
Ath Madrid
Mario Melero Lopez · 86 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.