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Premier League

Referee: Roger East

Chelsea

U U S U U

5–1

Full-time

Newcastle

U S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,5

This season — Premier League · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 26%

28%

24%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

60%

52%

Both score Ø 50%

56%

44%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,4

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

54% Possession 46%

14 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 5

2 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 14. · Newcastle 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	25	15	8	2	+20	53
2	Tottenham	25	13	9	3	+26	48
3	Arsenal	25	14	6	5	+17	48
4	Man City	25	14	5	6	+21	47
5	Man United	26	11	8	7	+9	41
6	Southampton	26	11	7	8	+10	40
7	West Ham	26	10	10	6	+9	40
8	Watford	26	10	6	10	+1	36
9	Stoke	26	10	6	10	-5	36
10	Everton	26	8	11	7	+11	35
11	Liverpool	25	9	8	8	-4	35
12	Crystal Palace	26	9	5	12	-5	32
13	West Brom	26	8	8	10	-8	32
14	Chelsea	25	7	9	9	-2	30
15	Bournemouth	26	7	7	12	-14	28
16	Swansea	26	6	9	11	-10	27
17	Newcastle	25	6	6	13	-18	24
18	Norwich	26	6	6	14	-20	24
19	Sunderland	26	6	5	15	-18	23
20	Aston Villa	25	3	7	15	-20	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	13	9	1	3	+19	28
2	Tottenham	13	7	4	2	+14	25
3	Leicester	12	7	4	1	+8	25
4	Arsenal	12	7	3	2	+9	24
5	Southampton	13	7	2	4	+10	23
6	Man United	12	6	4	2	+10	22
7	West Ham	12	5	5	2	+6	20
8	Watford	13	5	3	5	+2	18
9	Newcastle	13	4	5	4	+2	17
10	Chelsea	13	4	5	4	+1	17
11	Stoke	12	5	2	5	+0	17
12	Liverpool	12	4	5	3	-1	17
13	Swansea	14	4	5	5	-5	17
14	Everton	14	4	4	6	+4	16
15	Norwich	13	4	4	5	-2	16
16	West Brom	13	4	4	5	-3	16
17	Sunderland	13	4	3	6	+1	15
18	Crystal Palace	14	4	2	8	-4	14
19	Bournemouth	13	3	4	6	-6	13
20	Aston Villa	12	2	4	6	-4	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	13	8	4	1	+12	28
2	Arsenal	13	7	3	3	+8	24
3	Tottenham	12	6	5	1	+12	23
4	West Ham	14	5	5	4	+3	20
5	Everton	12	4	7	1	+7	19
6	Man City	12	5	4	3	+2	19
7	Man United	14	5	4	5	-1	19
8	Stoke	14	5	4	5	-5	19
9	Watford	13	5	3	5	-1	18
10	Crystal Palace	12	5	3	4	-1	18
11	Liverpool	13	5	3	5	-3	18
12	Southampton	13	4	5	4	+0	17
13	West Brom	13	4	4	5	-5	16
14	Bournemouth	13	4	3	6	-8	15
15	Chelsea	12	3	4	5	-3	13
16	Swansea	12	2	4	6	-5	10
17	Norwich	13	2	2	9	-18	8
18	Sunderland	13	2	2	9	-19	8
19	Newcastle	12	2	1	9	-20	7
20	Aston Villa	13	1	3	9	-16	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.