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La Liga

Referee: Alfonso Alvarez Izquierdo

Real Madrid

S S U S S

4–2

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

T T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

4,3

3,3

Scored

3,5

1,3

Conceded

0,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

+2,7

-0,7

This season — La Liga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 54%

65%

43%

Points per game

2,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

70%

57%

Both score Ø 48%

52%

43%

Average goals

3,8

2,7

Scored

2,9

1,4

Conceded

0,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,1

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

60% Possession 40%

19 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 2

10 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 3. · Ath Bilbao 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	22	17	3	2	+39	54
2	Ath Madrid	23	16	3	4	+23	51
3	Real Madrid	23	15	5	3	+45	50
4	Villarreal	23	13	6	4	+11	45
5	Sevilla	23	10	7	6	+8	37
6	Ath Bilbao	23	10	5	8	+3	35
7	Celta	23	10	5	8	-2	35
8	Eibar	23	9	6	8	+5	33
9	La Coruna	23	6	13	4	+3	31
10	Malaga	23	8	6	9	+1	30
11	Sociedad	23	7	6	10	-3	27
12	Getafe	23	7	5	11	-9	26
13	Valencia	23	5	10	8	+2	25
14	Betis	23	6	7	10	-15	25
15	Vallecano	24	6	6	12	-17	24
16	Sp Gijon	23	6	5	12	-12	23
17	Espanol	23	6	4	13	-26	22
18	Las Palmas	23	5	6	12	-13	21
19	Granada	23	5	5	13	-21	20
20	Levante	23	4	5	14	-22	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	12	11	1	0	+32	34
2	Real Madrid	12	10	1	1	+35	31
3	Sevilla	12	10	0	2	+14	30
4	Villarreal	12	9	2	1	+11	29
5	Ath Madrid	11	8	2	1	+9	26
6	Ath Bilbao	11	6	3	2	+11	21
7	Getafe	12	6	3	3	+9	21
8	Eibar	12	6	3	3	+7	21
9	Malaga	11	5	3	3	+7	18
10	Las Palmas	12	5	3	4	+1	18
11	Celta	12	5	3	4	+0	18
12	Vallecano	12	5	2	5	+0	17
13	Valencia	11	3	7	1	+6	16
14	Espanol	11	4	4	3	-7	16
15	La Coruna	11	3	6	2	+5	15
16	Sociedad	11	4	3	4	+0	15
17	Sp Gijon	11	3	4	4	+1	13
18	Levante	12	3	3	6	-7	12
19	Granada	11	3	2	6	-8	11
20	Betis	11	2	4	5	-8	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	12	8	1	3	+14	25
2	Barcelona	10	6	2	2	+7	20
3	Real Madrid	11	5	4	2	+10	19
4	Celta	11	5	2	4	-2	17
5	Villarreal	11	4	4	3	+0	16
6	La Coruna	12	3	7	2	-2	16
7	Betis	12	4	3	5	-7	15
8	Ath Bilbao	12	4	2	6	-8	14
9	Eibar	11	3	3	5	-2	12
10	Sociedad	12	3	3	6	-3	12
11	Malaga	12	3	3	6	-6	12
12	Sp Gijon	12	3	1	8	-13	10
13	Valencia	12	2	3	7	-4	9
14	Granada	12	2	3	7	-13	9
15	Sevilla	11	0	7	4	-6	7
16	Vallecano	12	1	4	7	-17	7
17	Espanol	12	2	0	10	-19	6
18	Levante	11	1	2	8	-15	5
19	Getafe	11	1	2	8	-18	5
20	Las Palmas	11	0	3	8	-14	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.