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Championship

Referee: Geoff Eltringham

Derby

U T T U U

0–1

Full-time

Milton Keynes Dons

T S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Milton Keynes Dons

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

0,5

0,7

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-1,0

This season — Championship · 29/30 matches

Win Ø 32%

41%

23%

Points per game

1,7

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

38%

40%

Both score Ø 44%

45%

43%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

0,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

58% Possession 42%

13 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 1

1 Blocked shots 5

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 4

4 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 6. · Milton Keynes Dons 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	29	17	6	6	+23	57
2	Hull	28	17	5	6	+28	56
3	Burnley	30	15	10	5	+22	55
4	Brighton	28	14	10	4	+9	52
5	Sheffield Weds	29	13	10	6	+12	49
6	Derby	29	12	12	5	+12	48
7	Ipswich	30	13	9	8	+2	48
8	Birmingham	30	13	8	9	+8	47
9	Cardiff	30	11	12	7	+5	45
10	Nott'm Forest	30	10	12	8	+6	42
11	Wolves	30	10	10	10	-1	40
12	Brentford	30	11	7	12	-2	40
13	QPR	31	9	12	10	-1	39
14	Preston	30	9	12	9	-1	39
15	Reading	30	9	9	12	+0	36
16	Leeds	30	8	12	10	-5	36
17	Fulham	30	7	11	12	-3	32
18	Huddersfield	30	8	8	14	-4	32
19	Blackburn	28	6	13	9	+0	31
20	Milton Keynes Dons	30	7	7	16	-18	28
21	Bristol City	30	6	10	14	-22	28
22	Rotherham	30	7	4	19	-19	25
23	Bolton	30	4	12	14	-21	24
24	Charlton	30	5	9	16	-30	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	13	11	2	0	+26	35
2	Burnley	15	10	3	2	+18	33
3	Middlesbrough	15	10	3	2	+17	33
4	Brighton	15	10	2	3	+7	32
5	Sheffield Weds	14	9	4	1	+15	31
6	Cardiff	15	7	7	1	+8	28
7	Derby	15	7	6	2	+12	27
8	Nott'm Forest	15	6	6	3	+8	24
9	Reading	15	6	6	3	+7	24
10	Ipswich	15	6	6	3	+4	24
11	QPR	16	5	8	3	+4	23
12	Birmingham	15	7	2	6	+1	23
13	Preston	15	5	6	4	+0	21
14	Brentford	15	6	3	6	-2	21
15	Bolton	15	4	8	3	+1	20
16	Milton Keynes Dons	15	6	2	7	-6	20
17	Huddersfield	15	5	4	6	+5	19
18	Wolves	15	4	6	5	-2	18
19	Fulham	15	4	5	6	+0	17
20	Leeds	15	4	5	6	-4	17
21	Rotherham	15	5	2	8	-5	17
22	Blackburn	13	3	7	3	+3	16
23	Bristol City	15	3	6	6	-7	15
24	Charlton	15	3	6	6	-8	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Birmingham	15	6	6	3	+7	24
2	Middlesbrough	14	7	3	4	+6	24
3	Ipswich	15	7	3	5	-2	24
4	Burnley	15	5	7	3	+4	22
5	Wolves	15	6	4	5	+1	22
6	Hull	15	6	3	6	+2	21
7	Derby	14	5	6	3	+0	21
8	Brighton	13	4	8	1	+2	20
9	Brentford	15	5	4	6	+0	19
10	Leeds	15	4	7	4	-1	19
11	Preston	15	4	6	5	-1	18
12	Nott'm Forest	15	4	6	5	-2	18
13	Sheffield Weds	15	4	6	5	-3	18
14	Cardiff	15	4	5	6	-3	17
15	QPR	15	4	4	7	-5	16
16	Fulham	15	3	6	6	-3	15
17	Blackburn	15	3	6	6	-3	15
18	Huddersfield	15	3	4	8	-9	13
19	Bristol City	15	3	4	8	-15	13
20	Reading	15	3	3	9	-7	12
21	Charlton	15	2	3	10	-22	9
22	Milton Keynes Dons	15	1	5	9	-12	8
23	Rotherham	15	2	2	11	-14	8
24	Bolton	15	0	4	11	-22	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.