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Ligue 1
Referee: Tony Chapron
Montpellier
T T T T S
0–1
Full-time
Marseille
U U S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Montpellier Marseille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
2,2
2,0
Scored
1,2
1,2
Conceded
1,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,3
This season — Ligue 1 · 23/23 matches
Win Ø 30%
30%
30%
Points per game
1,1
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
48%
35%
Both score Ø 55%
48%
61%
Average goals
2,4
2,5
Scored
1,2
1,4
Conceded
1,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,1
+0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

44% Possession 56%
12 Shots 4
3 Shots on target 1
2 Blocked shots 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 3
6 Corners 5
4 Offside 1
0 Free kicks against 0
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Montpellier 17. · Marseille 10.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 23 20 3 0 +48 63
2 Monaco 24 11 9 4 +7 42
3 Angers 23 10 7 6 +6 37
4 Nice 23 10 6 7 +9 36
5 Caen 23 11 3 9 -2 36
6 Rennes 23 8 10 5 +3 34
7 Bordeaux 23 8 9 6 +1 33
8 St Etienne 23 10 3 10 -2 33
9 Nantes 23 8 8 7 -1 32
10 Marseille 23 7 10 6 +9 31
11 Lyon 23 8 6 9 +1 30
12 Lorient 23 7 9 7 +0 30
13 Bastia 24 8 4 12 -7 28
14 Guingamp 23 7 6 10 -8 27
15 Lille 23 5 11 7 -1 26
16 Gazelec FC Ajaccio 23 6 8 9 -7 26
17 Montpellier 23 7 4 12 -2 25
18 Reims 23 5 8 10 -9 23
19 Toulouse 23 4 8 11 -16 20
20 Troyes 23 1 8 14 -29 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Montpellier Marseille
30′
🟨 Antoine Rabillard
Half-time 0–0
Jonas Martin 🟨
51′
59′
🔁 R. Alessandrini
↦ A. Rabillard
59′
🔁 F. Thauvin
↦ B. Sarr
M. N'Diaye 🔁
↦ R. Bensebaini
67′
68′
G. N'Koudou 0–1
69′
🟥 Florian Thauvin
J. Saihi 🔁
↦ M. Deplagne
76′
Jamel Saihi 🟨
83′
D. Bakar 🔁
↦ W. Rémy
85′
86′
🟨 Rémy Cabella
86′
🔁 P. De Ceglie
↦ R. Cabella
90′
🟨 Paolo De Ceglie
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Montpellier

1 L. Pionnier G
3 D. Congré D
4 Hilton D
21 W. Rémy D
25 M. Deplagne D
15 R. Bensebaini D
10 R. Boudebouz M
14 B. Dabo M
8 J. Martin M
19 S. Camara F
9 M. Yatabaré F
Bench (7)
2 M. N'Diaye
23 J. Saihi
28 D. Bakar
13 E. Skhiri
26 K. Bérigaud
29 C. Ninga
30 J. Ligali

Marseille

30 S. Mandanda G
6 Rolando D
3 N. N'Koulou D
26 B. Dja Djédjé D
2 Javi Manquillo D
18 M. Isla D
20 A. Romao M
13 R. Cabella M
17 B. Sarr D
14 G. N'Koudou F
28 A. Rabillard F
Bench (7)
11 R. Alessandrini
24 F. Thauvin
25 P. De Ceglie
40 F. Escales
4 K. Rekik
15 S. Sparagna
29 A. Zambo Anguissa

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Tony Chapron · 47 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
16,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.