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Ligue 1

Referee: Mikael Lesage

Guingamp

T T T U U

1–0

Full-time

Bastia

T U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guingamp Bastia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,2

1,8

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 29%

24%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

48%

38%

Both score Ø 41%

38%

43%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

0,9

1,0

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

61% Possession 39%

16 Shots 4

3 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 0

3 Offside 4

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 2

The table before the match Guingamp 18. · Bastia 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	22	19	3	0	+46	60
2	Monaco	21	9	9	3	+4	36
3	Rennes	22	8	10	4	+7	34
4	Angers	22	9	7	6	+3	34
5	Nice	21	9	6	6	+10	33
6	St Etienne	21	10	2	9	+0	32
7	Caen	21	9	3	9	-5	30
8	Marseille	21	7	8	6	+9	29
9	Lyon	21	8	5	8	+2	29
10	Bordeaux	21	7	8	6	-3	29
11	Nantes	21	7	7	7	-2	28
12	Lorient	21	6	9	6	-1	27
13	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	22	6	8	8	-3	26
14	Lille	21	5	10	6	+1	25
15	Bastia	21	7	4	10	-5	25
16	Montpellier	21	6	4	11	-5	22
17	Reims	21	5	7	9	-7	22
18	Guingamp	21	5	6	10	-10	21
19	Toulouse	21	4	8	9	-11	20
20	Troyes	21	0	8	13	-30	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	9	1	0	+27	28
2	St Etienne	11	7	2	2	+8	23
3	Bastia	11	7	0	4	+6	21
4	Bordeaux	11	6	3	2	+5	21
5	Angers	11	4	6	1	+4	18
6	Lyon	10	5	2	3	+7	17
7	Nice	10	5	1	4	+5	16
8	Lorient	11	4	4	3	+4	16
9	Caen	11	5	1	5	-6	16
10	Lille	10	4	3	3	+4	15
11	Nantes	10	4	3	3	+0	15
12	Montpellier	11	5	0	6	-1	15
13	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	10	3	5	2	+2	14
14	Rennes	11	3	5	3	-1	14
15	Monaco	10	3	5	2	-1	14
16	Guingamp	10	3	4	3	+1	13
17	Reims	11	3	4	4	+0	13
18	Marseille	11	2	6	3	+6	12
19	Toulouse	10	2	5	3	+0	11
20	Troyes	12	0	6	6	-10	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	10	2	0	+19	32
2	Monaco	11	6	4	1	+5	22
3	Rennes	11	5	5	1	+8	20
4	Nice	11	4	5	2	+5	17
5	Marseille	10	5	2	3	+3	17
6	Angers	11	5	1	5	-1	16
7	Caen	10	4	2	4	+1	14
8	Nantes	11	3	4	4	-2	13
9	Lyon	11	3	3	5	-5	12
10	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	12	3	3	6	-5	12
11	Lorient	10	2	5	3	-5	11
12	Lille	11	1	7	3	-3	10
13	Reims	10	2	3	5	-7	9
14	St Etienne	10	3	0	7	-8	9
15	Toulouse	11	2	3	6	-11	9
16	Bordeaux	10	1	5	4	-8	8
17	Guingamp	11	2	2	7	-11	8
18	Montpellier	10	1	4	5	-4	7
19	Bastia	10	0	4	6	-11	4
20	Troyes	9	0	2	7	-20	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.