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La Liga
Referee: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea
Ath Madrid
S S S S T
1–1
Full-time
Sevilla
S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Sevilla
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,0
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 17%
17%
17%
Average goals
2,3
3,2
Scored
1,2
1,7
Conceded
1,2
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,2
This season — La Liga · 36/36 matches
Win Ø 53%
61%
44%
Points per game
2,1
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 38%
25%
50%
Both score Ø 38%
31%
44%
Average goals
2,2
2,9
Scored
1,4
1,6
Conceded
0,7
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

48% Possession 52%
11 Shots 11
4 Shots on target 5
2 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 7
7 Offside 5
16 Free kicks against 12
5 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ath Madrid 2. · Sevilla 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Barcelona 36 25 8 3 +52 83
2 Ath Madrid 36 22 8 6 +26 74
3 Real Madrid 36 21 5 10 +21 68
4 Getafe 36 15 13 8 +15 58
5 Sevilla 36 16 7 13 +13 55
6 Valencia 36 13 16 7 +12 55
7 Ath Bilbao 36 12 14 10 -4 50
8 Sociedad 36 12 11 13 -1 47
9 Espanol 36 12 11 13 -6 47
10 Alaves 36 12 11 13 -10 47
11 Eibar 36 11 13 12 -3 46
12 Leganes 36 11 12 13 -3 45
13 Betis 36 12 8 16 -11 44
14 Villarreal 36 9 13 14 -4 40
15 Celta 36 10 10 16 -7 40
16 Levante 36 10 10 16 -8 40
17 Valladolid 36 9 11 16 -18 38
18 Girona 36 9 10 17 -14 37
19 Vallecano 36 8 7 21 -28 31
20 Huesca 36 6 12 18 -22 30

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ath Madrid Sevilla
1–0 Koke
Rodri Hernández
30′
36′
🔁 I. Amadou
↦ M. Gonalons
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 Aleix Vidal
↦ S. Kjær
Á. Correa 🔁
↦ Rodri Hernández
57′
58′
🟨 Roque Mesa
Thomas Partey 🟨
68′
70′
Pablo Sarabia 1–1
F. Vázquez
Álvaro Morata 🟨
72′
75′
🟨 Aleix Vidal
76′
🔁 M. Rog
↦ Roque Mesa
T. Lemar 🔁
↦ Álvaro Morata
78′
Koke 🟨
81′
86′
🟨 Marko Rog
Thomas Lemar 🟨
88′
Saúl Ñíguez 🟨
90′
90′
🟨 Jesús Navas
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Ath Madrid

4-4-2
13 J. Oblak G
20 Juanfran D
3 Filipe Luis D
2 D. Godín D
35 Francisco Montero D
8 Saúl M
6 Koke M
5 T. Partey M
14 Rodri Hernández M
7 A. Griezmann F
22 Álvaro Morata F
Bench (7)
10 Á. Correa
11 T. Lemar
40 Víctor Mollejo
43 Toni Moya
4 S. Arias
1 Adán
23 Vitolo

Coach: D. Simeone

Sevilla

4-4-1-1
1 T. Vaclík G
4 S. Kjær D
3 Sergi Gómez D
24 J. Gnagnon D
16 Jesús Navas D
22 F. Vázquez F
15 M. Gonalons M
17 Pablo Sarabia M
7 Roque Mesa M
9 W. Ben Yedder F
19 Munir M
Bench (7)
5 I. Amadou
11 Aleix Vidal
20 M. Rog
41 Bryan Gil
8 Nolito
18 Sergio Escudero
13 Juan Soriano

Coach: Joaquín Caparrós

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea · 116 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,3 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.