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Premier League

Referee: Jonathan Moss

Man City

S S S S S

2–0

Full-time

Cardiff

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Cardiff

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

2,5

1,0

Conceded

0,2

2,2

Goal diff per game

+2,3

-1,2

This season — Premier League · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 54%

81%

26%

Points per game

2,5

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

68%

58%

Both score Ø 47%

48%

45%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

2,6

0,9

Conceded

0,7

1,9

Goal diff per game

+1,9

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

78% Possession 22%

27 Shots 4

11 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 9

17 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

3 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 2. · Cardiff 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	32	24	7	1	+53	79
2	Man City	31	25	2	4	+60	77
3	Arsenal	31	19	6	6	+26	63
4	Tottenham	31	20	1	10	+24	61
5	Man United	32	18	7	7	+18	61
6	Chelsea	31	18	6	7	+18	60
7	Wolves	32	13	8	11	+1	47
8	Watford	32	13	7	12	+0	46
9	Leicester	32	13	5	14	-1	44
10	Everton	32	12	7	13	+3	43
11	West Ham	32	12	6	14	-7	42
12	Bournemouth	32	11	5	16	-15	38
13	Crystal Palace	31	10	6	15	-3	36
14	Newcastle	32	9	8	15	-11	35
15	Brighton	30	9	6	15	-11	33
16	Southampton	31	8	9	14	-15	33
17	Burnley	32	9	6	17	-22	33
18	Cardiff	31	8	4	19	-31	28
19	Fulham	33	4	5	24	-46	17
20	Huddersfield	32	3	5	24	-41	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	16	15	0	1	+41	45
2	Liverpool	16	14	2	0	+36	44
3	Arsenal	17	14	2	1	+27	44
4	Chelsea	15	9	5	1	+19	32
5	Man United	15	9	5	1	+11	32
6	Tottenham	14	9	1	4	+12	28
7	Wolves	16	8	3	5	+4	27
8	West Ham	17	8	3	6	+2	27
9	Bournemouth	16	7	5	4	+7	26
10	Watford	15	8	2	5	+3	26
11	Everton	16	7	4	5	+2	25
12	Leicester	16	7	2	7	+2	23
13	Brighton	15	6	4	5	+1	22
14	Newcastle	16	7	1	8	-1	22
15	Burnley	16	6	2	8	-7	20
16	Cardiff	17	6	2	9	-14	20
17	Southampton	15	4	6	5	-3	18
18	Crystal Palace	16	4	4	8	-4	16
19	Fulham	16	4	3	9	-13	15
20	Huddersfield	16	2	2	12	-17	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	10	5	1	+17	35
2	Tottenham	17	11	0	6	+12	33
3	Man City	15	10	2	3	+19	32
4	Man United	17	9	2	6	+7	29
5	Chelsea	16	9	1	6	-1	28
6	Leicester	16	6	3	7	-3	21
7	Crystal Palace	15	6	2	7	+1	20
8	Watford	17	5	5	7	-3	20
9	Wolves	16	5	5	6	-3	20
10	Arsenal	14	5	4	5	-1	19
11	Everton	16	5	3	8	+1	18
12	West Ham	15	4	3	8	-9	15
13	Southampton	16	4	3	9	-12	15
14	Newcastle	16	2	7	7	-10	13
15	Burnley	16	3	4	9	-15	13
16	Bournemouth	16	4	0	12	-22	12
17	Brighton	15	3	2	10	-12	11
18	Cardiff	14	2	2	10	-17	8
19	Huddersfield	16	1	3	12	-24	6
20	Fulham	17	0	2	15	-33	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.