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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Hernandez

Villarreal

T S T T U

3–0

Full-time

Ath Madrid

S T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

1,8

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

This season — La Liga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 47%

43%

50%

Points per game

1,6

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

36%

43%

Both score Ø 36%

43%

29%

Average goals

2,1

2,8

Scored

1,4

2,0

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

53% Possession 47%

9 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 7

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 7

0 Offside 6

13 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 6. · Ath Madrid 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	15	11	4	0	+26	37
2	Barcelona	15	9	4	2	+22	31
3	Sevilla	15	9	3	3	+8	30
4	Sociedad	15	8	2	5	+5	26
5	Ath Madrid	14	7	4	3	+17	25
6	Villarreal	14	6	5	3	+9	23
7	Ath Bilbao	15	7	2	6	+2	23
8	Eibar	15	6	4	5	+2	22
9	Espanol	15	5	7	3	+1	22
10	Las Palmas	15	5	6	4	+3	21
11	Malaga	15	5	6	4	+2	21
12	Celta	15	6	3	6	-5	21
13	Alaves	15	4	6	5	-3	18
14	Betis	15	5	3	7	-10	18
15	Leganes	15	4	3	8	-14	15
16	La Coruna	15	3	4	8	-7	13
17	Valencia	15	3	3	9	-8	12
18	Sp Gijon	15	3	3	9	-14	12
19	Granada	15	1	6	8	-17	9
20	Osasuna	15	1	4	10	-19	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	8	6	2	0	+10	20
2	Sevilla	7	6	0	1	+6	18
3	Sociedad	8	5	2	1	+7	17
4	Malaga	8	5	2	1	+6	17
5	Eibar	8	5	2	1	+6	17
6	Villarreal	7	5	1	1	+9	16
7	Las Palmas	8	4	4	0	+8	16
8	Ath Bilbao	7	5	1	1	+6	16
9	Celta	8	5	0	3	+0	15
10	Ath Madrid	7	4	2	1	+11	14
11	Barcelona	7	3	3	1	+8	12
12	Betis	8	3	3	2	-2	12
13	La Coruna	7	3	1	3	+3	10
14	Espanol	8	2	4	2	+0	10
15	Sp Gijon	7	3	1	3	-4	10
16	Alaves	7	1	4	2	-2	7
17	Granada	7	1	3	3	-2	6
18	Valencia	7	1	2	4	-5	5
19	Leganes	7	1	2	4	-6	5
20	Osasuna	8	0	2	6	-11	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	8	6	1	1	+14	19
2	Real Madrid	7	5	2	0	+16	17
3	Sevilla	8	3	3	2	+2	12
4	Espanol	7	3	3	1	+1	12
5	Ath Madrid	7	3	2	2	+6	11
6	Alaves	8	3	2	3	-1	11
7	Leganes	8	3	1	4	-8	10
8	Sociedad	7	3	0	4	-2	9
9	Villarreal	7	1	4	2	+0	7
10	Valencia	8	2	1	5	-3	7
11	Ath Bilbao	8	2	1	5	-4	7
12	Celta	7	1	3	3	-5	6
13	Betis	7	2	0	5	-8	6
14	Eibar	7	1	2	4	-4	5
15	Las Palmas	7	1	2	4	-5	5
16	Osasuna	7	1	2	4	-8	5
17	Malaga	7	0	4	3	-4	4
18	La Coruna	8	0	3	5	-10	3
19	Granada	8	0	3	5	-15	3
20	Sp Gijon	8	0	2	6	-10	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.