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La Liga

Referee: Daniel Ocon Arraiz

Villarreal

U U S S U

3–1

Full-time

Osasuna

U T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Osasuna

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/5 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,5

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 29%

17%

40%

Both score Ø 55%

50%

60%

Average goals

1,8

2,8

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

0,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,2

This season — La Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 20%

40%

Points per game

1,8

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 30%

20%

40%

Both score Ø 60%

60%

Average goals

1,8

2,8

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

0,6

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

59% Possession 41%

12 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 5

5 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 8. · Osasuna 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	6	4	2	0	+9	14
2	Barcelona	6	4	1	1	+13	13
3	Ath Madrid	6	3	3	0	+10	12
4	Ath Bilbao	6	4	0	2	+3	12
5	Sevilla	6	3	2	1	+2	11
6	Las Palmas	6	3	1	2	+3	10
7	Eibar	6	3	1	2	+2	10
8	Villarreal	5	2	3	0	+3	9
9	Betis	6	2	2	2	-3	8
10	Sociedad	6	2	1	3	-1	7
11	Leganes	6	2	1	3	-4	7
12	Sp Gijon	6	2	1	3	-9	7
13	Alaves	5	1	3	1	+0	6
14	Valencia	6	2	0	4	-3	6
15	La Coruna	6	1	2	3	-2	5
16	Espanol	5	1	2	2	-3	5
17	Malaga	6	1	2	3	-3	5
18	Celta	5	1	1	3	-5	4
19	Granada	5	0	2	3	-6	2
20	Osasuna	5	0	2	3	-6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sevilla	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Ath Madrid	3	2	1	0	+6	7
3	Las Palmas	3	2	1	0	+5	7
4	Real Madrid	3	2	1	0	+4	7
5	Eibar	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Ath Bilbao	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	Sp Gijon	3	2	0	1	-3	6
8	Betis	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Barcelona	3	1	1	1	+3	4
10	Villarreal	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Sociedad	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Malaga	3	1	1	1	-1	4
13	La Coruna	3	1	0	2	-1	3
14	Valencia	3	1	0	2	-2	3
15	Celta	3	1	0	2	-4	3
16	Alaves	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Granada	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Espanol	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	Osasuna	3	0	1	2	-3	1
20	Leganes	3	0	1	2	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+10	9
2	Real Madrid	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Leganes	3	2	0	1	+1	6
4	Ath Bilbao	3	2	0	1	+1	6
5	Ath Madrid	3	1	2	0	+4	5
6	Villarreal	3	1	2	0	+2	5
7	Alaves	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Espanol	3	1	1	1	-1	4
9	Eibar	3	1	0	2	-1	3
10	Valencia	3	1	0	2	-1	3
11	Sociedad	3	1	0	2	-1	3
12	Las Palmas	3	1	0	2	-2	3
13	Betis	3	1	0	2	-4	3
14	La Coruna	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Sevilla	3	0	2	1	-2	2
16	Celta	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Malaga	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Osasuna	2	0	1	1	-3	1
19	Granada	2	0	1	1	-4	1
20	Sp Gijon	3	0	1	2	-6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.