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Primeira Liga
Referee: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho
Sp Braga
S S T T S
1–0
Full-time
Guimaraes
U T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Guimaraes
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,3
1,5
Scored
1,2
1,0
Conceded
1,2
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,5
This season — Primeira Liga · 24/24 matches
Win Ø 57%
67%
46%
Points per game
2,2
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 36%
46%
25%
Both score Ø 42%
42%
42%
Average goals
2,8
2,0
Scored
1,8
1,2
Conceded
1,0
0,9
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+0,3
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

44% Possession 56%
10 Shots 11
6 Shots on target 3
1 Blocked shots 5
3 Goalkeeper saves 5
5 Corners 8
1 Offside 0
26 Free kicks against 16
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sp Braga 3. · Guimaraes 6.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Benfica 24 19 2 3 +45 59
2 Porto 24 18 3 3 +34 57
3 Sp Braga 24 16 4 4 +18 52
4 Sp Lisbon 24 15 4 5 +21 49
5 Moreirense 25 13 3 9 +1 42
6 Guimaraes 24 11 6 7 +7 39
7 Belenenses 24 9 9 6 +6 36
8 Santa Clara 24 9 4 11 +0 31
9 Rio Ave 25 7 8 10 -3 29
10 Portimonense 24 8 4 12 -9 28
11 Maritimo 25 8 3 14 -12 27
12 Boavista 24 7 5 12 -11 26
13 Nacional 24 7 5 12 -22 26
14 Aves 24 7 4 13 -12 25
15 Vitoria Setubal 24 5 9 10 -6 24
16 Tondela 24 6 5 13 -11 23
17 Chaves 25 5 6 14 -18 21
18 Feirense 24 2 8 14 -28 14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sp Braga Guimaraes
1–0 Ricardo Horta
34′
Half-time 1–0
61′
🔁 Rochinha
↦ Mattheus
Murilo 🔁
↦ Ricardo Horta
71′
71′
🔁 O. John
↦ Tozé
Paulinho 🔁
↦ Dyego Sousa
76′
80′
🟨 Rochinha
Claudemir 🟨
83′
85′
🟨 André André
87′
🔁 João Carlos
↦ F. Sacko
Ricardo 🔁
↦ Wilson Eduardo
93′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Sp Braga

4-4-2
12 Tiago Sá G
34 Raúl Silva D
87 Marcelo Goiano D
5 Sequeira D
36 Bruno Vianna D
25 Claudemir M
27 Fransérgio M
60 João Palhinha M
21 Ricardo Horta M
7 Wilson Eduardo F
99 Dyego Sousa F
Bench (7)
19 Murilo
20 Paulinho
8 Ricardo
17 João Novais
14 Pablo
77 Francisco Trincão
28 Marafona

Coach: Abel Ferreira

Guimaraes

4-3-3
56 João Miguel G
2 Pedrão D
5 Rafa D
24 Y. Osorio D
17 F. Sacko D
11 André André M
25 A. Wakaso M
20 Tozé M
16 Mattheus M
7 Welthon F
91 Davidson F
Bench (7)
50 Rochinha
30 O. John
10 João Carlos
8 Pêpê Rodrigues
98 Dodô
1 Douglas Jesus
46 Frederico Venâncio

Coach: Luís Castro

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Luis Miguel Branco Godinho · 45 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
35,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.