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Bundesliga
Referee: Frank Willenborg
Mainz
T U U S T
1–3
Full-time
Augsburg
T S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Augsburg
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
33%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,5
3,0
Scored
1,2
1,5
Conceded
1,3
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,0
This season — Bundesliga · 13/13 matches
Win Ø 35%
31%
38%
Points per game
1,2
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
38%
69%
Both score Ø 54%
54%
54%
Average goals
2,5
2,5
Scored
1,1
1,4
Conceded
1,5
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,4
+0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

59% Possession 41%
16 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
4 Corners 3
0 Offside 1
18 Free kicks against 16
4 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Mainz 13. · Augsburg 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 13 9 2 2 +21 29
2 RB Leipzig 13 8 2 3 +7 26
3 Schalke 04 13 7 3 3 +6 24
4 M'gladbach 13 7 3 3 +1 24
5 Dortmund 13 6 3 4 +13 21
6 Leverkusen 13 5 5 3 +8 20
7 Hoffenheim 13 5 5 3 +3 20
8 Augsburg 13 5 4 4 +3 19
9 Ein Frankfurt 13 5 4 4 +1 19
10 Hannover 13 5 4 4 +0 19
11 Hertha 13 4 5 4 -1 17
12 Stuttgart 13 5 2 6 -3 17
13 Mainz 13 4 3 6 -5 15
14 Wolfsburg 13 2 8 3 -2 14
15 Hamburg 14 4 2 8 -7 14
16 Freiburg 14 2 6 6 -16 12
17 Werder Bremen 13 1 5 7 -8 8
18 FC Koln 13 0 2 11 -21 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Mainz Augsburg
22′
M. Gregoritsch 0–1
P. Max
39′
🔁 M. Heller
↦ E. Thommy
43′
A. Finnbogason 0–2
Half-time 0–2
E. Berggreen 🔁
↦ P. De Blasis
46′
S. Serdar 🔁
↦ L. Öztunali
46′
Danny Latza 🟨
52′
59′
🔁 K. Danso
↦ Koo Ja-Cheol
Abdou Diallo 🟨
69′
71′
🟨 Daniel Opare
V. Fischer 🔁
↦ G. Donati
76′
1–2 G. Holtmann
E. Berggreen
85′
86′
A. Finnbogason 1–3
Caiuby
Viktor Fischer 🟨
87′
88′
🔁 S. Córdova
↦ A. Finnbogason
Stefan Bell 🟨
90′
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Mainz

4-3-3
27 R. Zentner G
2 G. Donati D
16 S. Bell D
4 A. Diallo D
6 D. Latza M
10 A. Maxim M
25 J. Gbamin M
8 L. Öztunali F
38 G. Holtmann M
32 P. De Blasis M
19 Kenan F
Bench (7)
11 E. Berggreen
23 S. Serdar
14 V. Fischer
7 R. Quaison
20 F. Frei
33 J. Huth
42 A. Hack

Coach: S. Schwarz

Augsburg

4-2-3-1
35 M. Hitz G
4 D. Opare D
36 M. Hinteregger D
6 J. Gouweleeuw D
31 P. Max D
10 D. Baier M
30 Caiuby M
19 Koo Ja-Cheol M
26 E. Thommy M
27 A. Finnbogason F
11 M. Gregoritsch M
Bench (7)
7 M. Heller
38 K. Danso
21 S. Córdova
1 A. Luthe
14 J. Morávek
22 Ji Dong-Won
32 R. Framberger

Coach: M. Baum

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Frank Willenborg · 42 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.