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Championship

Referee: Geoff Eltringham

Birmingham

T T U S T

1–0

Full-time

Cardiff

T U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Cardiff

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

2,2

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,0

This season — Championship · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 41%

18%

64%

Points per game

0,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

36%

55%

Both score Ø 50%

45%

55%

Average goals

2,4

Scored

0,6

1,5

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,1

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

50% Possession 50%

6 Shots 7

2 Shots on target 0

3 Blocked shots 4

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 8

14 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 22. · Cardiff 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cardiff	11	7	3	1	+8	24
2	Wolves	11	7	2	2	+8	23
3	Sheffield United	11	7	0	4	+5	21
4	Bristol City	11	5	5	1	+9	20
5	Leeds	11	6	2	3	+7	20
6	Preston	11	5	5	1	+7	20
7	Aston Villa	10	5	3	2	+7	18
8	Ipswich	10	6	0	4	+4	18
9	Norwich	11	5	3	3	-2	18
10	Fulham	11	4	5	2	+4	17
11	Sheffield Weds	11	4	4	3	+3	16
12	Middlesbrough	10	4	3	3	+4	15
13	Nott'm Forest	11	5	0	6	-4	15
14	Millwall	11	3	4	4	+1	13
15	Derby	10	3	4	3	+0	13
16	QPR	11	3	4	4	-1	13
17	Hull	11	3	3	5	+3	12
18	Barnsley	10	3	2	5	-2	11
19	Brentford	11	1	6	4	-2	9
20	Reading	10	2	3	5	-3	9
21	Burton Albion	11	2	3	6	-17	9
22	Birmingham	11	2	2	7	-12	8
23	Sunderland	11	1	4	6	-9	7
24	Bolton	11	0	2	9	-18	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cardiff	6	4	2	0	+8	14
2	Preston	6	3	3	0	+5	12
3	Sheffield United	5	4	0	1	+5	12
4	Ipswich	6	4	0	2	+4	12
5	Leeds	5	3	2	0	+8	11
6	Bristol City	5	3	2	0	+7	11
7	Sheffield Weds	6	3	2	1	+4	11
8	Aston Villa	5	3	2	0	+4	11
9	QPR	6	3	2	1	+3	11
10	Middlesbrough	6	3	2	1	+3	11
11	Hull	6	3	1	2	+10	10
12	Millwall	6	3	1	2	+3	10
13	Wolves	5	3	1	1	+2	10
14	Nott'm Forest	6	3	0	3	-2	9
15	Norwich	5	2	2	1	+1	8
16	Derby	4	2	1	1	+4	7
17	Barnsley	5	2	1	2	+0	7
18	Birmingham	5	2	1	2	-2	7
19	Burton Albion	6	2	1	3	-7	7
20	Fulham	5	1	3	1	+0	6
21	Reading	5	1	2	2	-1	5
22	Brentford	5	0	4	1	-1	4
23	Sunderland	5	0	1	4	-5	1
24	Bolton	5	0	0	5	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	6	4	1	1	+6	13
2	Fulham	6	3	2	1	+4	11
3	Cardiff	5	3	1	1	+0	10
4	Norwich	6	3	1	2	-3	10
5	Bristol City	6	2	3	1	+2	9
6	Sheffield United	6	3	0	3	+0	9
7	Leeds	6	3	0	3	-1	9
8	Preston	5	2	2	1	+2	8
9	Aston Villa	5	2	1	2	+3	7
10	Ipswich	4	2	0	2	+0	6
11	Nott'm Forest	5	2	0	3	-2	6
12	Sunderland	6	1	3	2	-4	6
13	Derby	6	1	3	2	-4	6
14	Brentford	6	1	2	3	-1	5
15	Sheffield Weds	5	1	2	2	-1	5
16	Middlesbrough	4	1	1	2	+1	4
17	Barnsley	5	1	1	3	-2	4
18	Reading	5	1	1	3	-2	4
19	Millwall	5	0	3	2	-2	3
20	QPR	5	0	2	3	-4	2
21	Hull	5	0	2	3	-7	2
22	Bolton	6	0	2	4	-9	2
23	Burton Albion	5	0	2	3	-10	2
24	Birmingham	6	0	1	5	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.