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Championship

Referee: Darren Drysdale

Brentford

T S U T T

1–3

Full-time

Derby

T T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

0,8

0,5

Conceded

2,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-1,2

This season — Championship · 31/30 matches

Win Ø 38%

35%

40%

Points per game

1,3

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

58%

37%

Both score Ø 52%

61%

43%

Average goals

2,9

2,2

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

1,5

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

44% Possession 56%

13 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 8

2 Blocked shots 2

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 3

0 Offside 4

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brentford 13. · Derby 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	30	18	6	6	+30	60
2	Middlesbrough	30	17	7	6	+23	58
3	Burnley	31	15	11	5	+22	56
4	Brighton	31	15	11	5	+7	56
5	Sheffield Weds	30	14	10	6	+16	52
6	Cardiff	32	12	13	7	+8	49
7	Derby	30	12	12	6	+11	48
8	Birmingham	31	13	9	9	+8	48
9	Ipswich	31	13	9	9	+1	48
10	Nott'm Forest	31	10	12	9	+4	42
11	Preston	31	10	12	9	+0	42
12	Wolves	31	10	10	11	-2	40
13	Brentford	31	11	7	13	-6	40
14	QPR	31	9	12	10	-1	39
15	Reading	31	9	10	12	+0	37
16	Leeds	31	8	13	10	-5	37
17	Huddersfield	31	9	8	14	-2	35
18	Blackburn	30	7	13	10	+1	34
19	Fulham	31	7	11	13	-6	32
20	Milton Keynes Dons	31	8	7	16	-17	31
21	Bristol City	31	7	10	14	-21	31
22	Rotherham	31	7	5	19	-19	26
23	Charlton	31	5	10	16	-30	25
24	Bolton	31	4	12	15	-22	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	14	11	3	0	+26	36
2	Brighton	16	11	2	3	+8	35
3	Sheffield Weds	15	10	4	1	+19	34
4	Burnley	15	10	3	2	+18	33
5	Middlesbrough	15	10	3	2	+17	33
6	Cardiff	16	8	7	1	+11	31
7	Derby	16	7	6	3	+11	27
8	Reading	16	6	7	3	+7	25
9	Nott'm Forest	16	6	6	4	+6	24
10	Ipswich	15	6	6	3	+4	24
11	QPR	16	5	8	3	+4	23
12	Birmingham	15	7	2	6	+1	23
13	Preston	15	5	6	4	+0	21
14	Brentford	15	6	3	6	-2	21
15	Bolton	15	4	8	3	+1	20
16	Milton Keynes Dons	15	6	2	7	-6	20
17	Huddersfield	15	5	4	6	+5	19
18	Blackburn	15	4	7	4	+4	19
19	Wolves	16	4	6	6	-3	18
20	Leeds	16	4	6	6	-4	18
21	Rotherham	16	5	3	8	-5	18
22	Bristol City	16	4	6	6	-6	18
23	Fulham	15	4	5	6	+0	17
24	Charlton	16	3	7	6	-8	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Birmingham	16	6	7	3	+7	25
2	Middlesbrough	15	7	4	4	+6	25
3	Hull	16	7	3	6	+4	24
4	Ipswich	16	7	3	6	-3	24
5	Burnley	16	5	8	3	+4	23
6	Wolves	15	6	4	5	+1	22
7	Preston	16	5	6	5	+0	21
8	Derby	14	5	6	3	+0	21
9	Brighton	15	4	9	2	-1	21
10	Leeds	15	4	7	4	-1	19
11	Brentford	16	5	4	7	-4	19
12	Nott'm Forest	15	4	6	5	-2	18
13	Sheffield Weds	15	4	6	5	-3	18
14	Cardiff	16	4	6	6	-3	18
15	QPR	15	4	4	7	-5	16
16	Huddersfield	16	4	4	8	-7	16
17	Blackburn	15	3	6	6	-3	15
18	Fulham	16	3	6	7	-6	15
19	Bristol City	15	3	4	8	-15	13
20	Reading	15	3	3	9	-7	12
21	Milton Keynes Dons	16	2	5	9	-11	11
22	Charlton	15	2	3	10	-22	9
23	Rotherham	15	2	2	11	-14	8
24	Bolton	16	0	4	12	-23	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.