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Championship

Referee: Chris Kavanagh

Brighton

S S T T S

3–0

Full-time

Derby

U T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,3

This season — Championship · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 50%

61%

39%

Points per game

2,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

50%

31%

Both score Ø 34%

39%

28%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

1,7

1,1

Conceded

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

44% Possession 56%

16 Shots 3

6 Shots on target 0

3 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 2

0 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 11

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 2. · Derby 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	36	24	5	7	+40	77
2	Brighton	36	22	8	6	+29	74
3	Leeds	36	20	5	11	+14	65
4	Huddersfield	32	20	5	7	+9	65
5	Reading	33	18	7	8	+8	61
6	Sheffield Weds	34	16	8	10	+10	56
7	Fulham	33	14	12	7	+15	54
8	Norwich	36	15	8	13	+7	53
9	Preston	36	14	11	11	+3	53
10	Derby	36	14	10	12	+6	52
11	Barnsley	36	14	8	14	+2	50
12	Brentford	35	13	8	14	+3	47
13	Cardiff	36	13	8	15	-3	47
14	QPR	36	13	7	16	-9	46
15	Aston Villa	36	11	12	13	-4	45
16	Ipswich	36	10	14	12	-7	44
17	Birmingham	36	11	10	15	-16	43
18	Nott'm Forest	36	11	7	18	-10	40
19	Burton Albion	36	9	11	16	-13	38
20	Blackburn	35	9	10	16	-11	37
21	Wolves	34	9	9	16	-6	36
22	Bristol City	36	9	8	19	-8	35
23	Wigan	36	8	10	18	-10	34
24	Rotherham	36	4	5	27	-49	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	18	13	3	2	+26	42
2	Reading	18	11	5	2	+13	38
3	Leeds	18	12	2	4	+12	38
4	Huddersfield	16	12	2	2	+11	38
5	Norwich	17	11	3	3	+21	36
6	Newcastle	17	11	2	4	+20	35
7	Sheffield Weds	17	11	2	4	+12	35
8	Aston Villa	17	8	7	2	+9	31
9	Preston	18	9	4	5	+8	31
10	Derby	19	8	7	4	+8	31
11	Nott'm Forest	18	9	3	6	+7	30
12	Fulham	17	7	6	4	+6	27
13	Cardiff	18	8	3	7	+3	27
14	Ipswich	19	6	9	4	+2	27
15	Blackburn	19	7	6	6	+0	27
16	Brentford	16	7	5	4	+11	26
17	Bristol City	18	7	4	7	+0	25
18	Birmingham	19	7	4	8	-5	25
19	QPR	19	7	4	8	-6	25
20	Burton Albion	17	7	3	7	+1	24
21	Barnsley	18	6	6	6	-1	24
22	Rotherham	18	4	4	10	-9	16
23	Wigan	17	3	6	8	-6	15
24	Wolves	16	4	3	9	-7	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	19	13	3	3	+20	42
2	Brighton	18	9	5	4	+3	32
3	Fulham	16	7	6	3	+9	27
4	Leeds	18	8	3	7	+2	27
5	Huddersfield	16	8	3	5	-2	27
6	Barnsley	18	8	2	8	+3	26
7	Reading	15	7	2	6	-5	23
8	Preston	18	5	7	6	-5	22
9	Wolves	18	5	6	7	+1	21
10	Sheffield Weds	17	5	6	6	-2	21
11	Derby	17	6	3	8	-2	21
12	QPR	17	6	3	8	-3	21
13	Brentford	19	6	3	10	-8	21
14	Cardiff	18	5	5	8	-6	20
15	Wigan	19	5	4	10	-4	19
16	Birmingham	17	4	6	7	-11	18
17	Ipswich	17	4	5	8	-9	17
18	Norwich	19	4	5	10	-14	17
19	Aston Villa	19	3	5	11	-13	14
20	Burton Albion	19	2	8	9	-14	14
21	Bristol City	18	2	4	12	-8	10
22	Blackburn	16	2	4	10	-11	10
23	Nott'm Forest	18	2	4	12	-17	10
24	Rotherham	18	0	1	17	-40	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.