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Primeira Liga

Referee: Antonio Jorge Ferreira Goncalves

Belenenses

S T T T T

1–3

Full-time

Estoril

T U U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

100%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

2,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 25%

29%

21%

Points per game

1,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 31%

36%

25%

Both score Ø 41%

46%

36%

Average goals

1,9

2,0

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

56% Possession 44%

13 Shots 16

3 Shots on target 9

2 Blocked shots 3

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 1

1 Offside 2

20 Free kicks against 11

4 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Belenenses 12. · Estoril 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	28	21	5	2	+44	68
2	Porto	28	20	7	1	+49	67
3	Sp Lisbon	28	18	6	4	+28	60
4	Sp Braga	28	14	8	6	+17	50
5	Guimaraes	28	14	8	6	+11	50
6	Maritimo	28	12	8	8	+3	44
7	Rio Ave	28	11	6	11	-3	39
8	Chaves	28	8	12	8	+0	36
9	Vitoria Setubal	28	9	8	11	+0	35
10	Feirense	28	10	5	13	-16	35
11	Boavista	28	8	10	10	-3	34
12	Belenenses	28	8	8	12	-12	32
13	Pacos Ferreira	28	6	10	12	-12	28
14	Arouca	28	8	4	16	-19	28
15	Estoril	28	6	7	15	-13	25
16	Moreirense	28	5	6	17	-19	21
17	Nacional	28	4	8	16	-26	20
18	Tondela	28	3	8	17	-29	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	15	13	2	0	+32	41
2	Benfica	14	11	3	0	+31	36
3	Sp Lisbon	14	11	2	1	+22	35
4	Sp Braga	14	9	3	2	+16	30
5	Maritimo	14	9	3	2	+10	30
6	Chaves	14	6	7	1	+7	25
7	Vitoria Setubal	14	7	3	4	+7	24
8	Guimaraes	14	6	5	3	+5	23
9	Pacos Ferreira	14	5	7	2	+3	22
10	Rio Ave	14	6	4	4	+1	22
11	Belenenses	14	4	5	5	-2	17
12	Feirense	15	5	2	8	-10	17
13	Arouca	14	5	1	8	-6	16
14	Boavista	13	4	3	6	+2	15
15	Moreirense	14	2	6	6	-5	12
16	Tondela	13	3	3	7	-7	12
17	Nacional	14	2	6	6	-8	12
18	Estoril	14	3	2	9	-9	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	14	10	2	2	+13	32
2	Guimaraes	14	8	3	3	+6	27
3	Porto	13	7	5	1	+17	26
4	Sp Lisbon	14	7	4	3	+6	25
5	Sp Braga	14	5	5	4	+1	20
6	Boavista	15	4	7	4	-5	19
7	Feirense	13	5	3	5	-6	18
8	Rio Ave	14	5	2	7	-4	17
9	Belenenses	14	4	3	7	-10	15
10	Estoril	14	3	5	6	-4	14
11	Maritimo	14	3	5	6	-7	14
12	Arouca	14	3	3	8	-13	12
13	Chaves	14	2	5	7	-7	11
14	Vitoria Setubal	14	2	5	7	-7	11
15	Moreirense	14	3	0	11	-14	9
16	Nacional	14	2	2	10	-18	8
17	Pacos Ferreira	14	1	3	10	-15	6
18	Tondela	15	0	5	10	-22	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.