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Championship

Referee: David Webb

Burnley

U U T

1–0

Full-time

Brentford

U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Brentford

Last 6 — all competitions · 3/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

2,7

5,0

Scored

1,0

3,0

Conceded

1,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,0

This season — Championship · 3/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

2,7

5,0

Scored

1,0

3,0

Conceded

1,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Burnley 19. · Brentford 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ipswich	3	2	1	0	+3	7
2	Hull	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Brighton	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Milton Keynes Dons	3	2	0	1	+3	6
5	Middlesbrough	3	1	2	0	+3	5
6	Charlton	3	1	2	0	+2	5
7	Birmingham	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Sheffield Weds	4	1	2	1	+1	5
9	Preston	3	1	2	0	+1	5
10	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+2	4
11	Wolves	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Leeds	4	0	4	0	+0	4
13	Derby	4	0	4	0	+0	4
14	Nott'm Forest	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	QPR	3	1	1	1	-1	4
16	Cardiff	3	0	3	0	+0	3
17	Blackburn	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Reading	3	0	2	1	-1	2
19	Burnley	3	0	2	1	-2	2
20	Huddersfield	3	0	2	1	-2	2
21	Fulham	3	0	1	2	-2	1
22	Bristol City	3	0	1	2	-4	1
23	Rotherham	3	0	1	2	-4	1
24	Bolton	3	0	1	2	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Ipswich	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Sheffield Weds	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Nott'm Forest	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Milton Keynes Dons	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Leeds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Huddersfield	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Derby	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Wolves	2	0	1	1	-1	1
21	Blackburn	2	0	1	1	-1	1
22	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-2	1
23	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-3	1
24	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
2	Preston	2	1	1	0	+1	4
3	Milton Keynes Dons	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	QPR	2	1	0	1	-1	3
7	Cardiff	2	0	2	0	+0	2
8	Leeds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
9	Derby	2	0	2	0	+0	2
10	Middlesbrough	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Charlton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Blackburn	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Reading	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Sheffield Weds	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Burnley	2	0	1	1	-2	1
20	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-2	0
23	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
24	Bolton	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.