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Premier League
Referee: Neil Swarbrick
Sunderland
T T
1–1
Full-time
Swansea
U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sunderland Swansea
Last 6 — all competitions · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
100%
50%
Both score Ø 75%
100%
50%
Average goals
5,0
3,0
Scored
1,5
2,0
Conceded
3,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
-2,0
+1,0
This season — Premier League · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
100%
50%
Both score Ø 75%
100%
50%
Average goals
5,0
3,0
Scored
1,5
2,0
Conceded
3,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
-2,0
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

39% Possession 61%
10 Shots 20
2 Shots on target 9
3 Blocked shots 5
8 Goalkeeper saves 1
3 Corners 4
4 Offside 2
0 Free kicks against 0
4 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sunderland 20. · Swansea 6. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Man United 3 2 1 0 +2 7
2 Man City 2 2 0 0 +6 6
3 Leicester 2 2 0 0 +3 6
4 Liverpool 2 2 0 0 +2 6
5 Everton 2 1 1 0 +3 4
6 Swansea 2 1 1 0 +2 4
7 Crystal Palace 2 1 0 1 +1 3
8 West Ham 2 1 0 1 +1 3
9 Norwich 2 1 0 1 +0 3
10 Aston Villa 2 1 0 1 +0 3
11 Arsenal 2 1 0 1 -1 3
12 Watford 2 0 2 0 +0 2
13 Newcastle 3 0 2 1 -2 2
14 Tottenham 2 0 1 1 -1 1
15 Stoke 2 0 1 1 -1 1
16 Chelsea 2 0 1 1 -3 1
17 Southampton 2 0 1 1 -3 1
18 West Brom 2 0 1 1 -3 1
19 Bournemouth 2 0 0 2 -2 0
20 Sunderland 2 0 0 2 -4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sunderland Swansea
Jeremain Lens 🟨
18′
Lee Cattermole 🟨
21′
Half-time 0–0
Sebastián Coates 🟨
47′
48′
⚽ B. Gomis 0–1
K. Naughton
54′
🟨 André Ayew
1–1 J. Defoe ⚽
J. Lens
62′
S. Fletcher 🔁
↦ D. Graham
67′
76′
🔁 Éder
↦ B. Gomis
Patrick van Aanholt 🟨
82′
D. Watmore 🔁
↦ J. Defoe
86′
90′
🟨 Gylfi Sigurðsson
S. Larsson 🔁
↦ J. Lens
93′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Sunderland

1 C. Pantilimon G
16 J. O'Shea D
2 B. Jones D
22 S. Coates D
3 P. van Aanholt D
6 L. Cattermole M
8 J. Rodwell M
21 Y. M'Vila M
17 J. Lens M
18 J. Defoe M
19 D. Graham F
Bench (7)
26 S. Fletcher
41 D. Watmore
7 S. Larsson
5 W. Brown
12 A. Matthews
23 E. Giaccherini
25 V. Mannone

Swansea

1 Ł. Fabiański G
26 K. Naughton D
3 N. Taylor D
6 A. Williams D
33 F. Fernández D
24 J. Cork M
8 J. Shelvey M
23 G. Sigurðsson M
18 B. Gomis F
10 A. Ayew M
20 J. Montero M
Bench (7)
17 Éder
7 L. Britton
12 N. Dyer
13 K. Nordfeldt
15 W. Routledge
22 Àngel Rangel
27 K. Bartley

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Neil Swarbrick · 72 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,2 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
13,9 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,07 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.