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Championship

Referee: Jeremy Simpson

Nott'm Forest

S T S T U

2–1

Full-time

Swansea

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,7

This season — Championship · 38/36 matches

Win Ø 35%

34%

36%

Points per game

1,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

42%

53%

Both score Ø 49%

47%

50%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

31% Possession 69%

11 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 6

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 5

3 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 8

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 10. · Swansea 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	38	23	9	6	+29	78
2	Sheffield United	38	22	8	8	+30	74
3	Leeds	36	20	7	9	+19	67
4	West Brom	37	19	9	9	+23	66
5	Middlesbrough	37	15	13	9	+9	58
6	Preston	38	15	12	11	+8	57
7	Derby	34	15	11	8	+11	56
8	Bristol City	36	15	10	11	+7	55
9	Sheffield Weds	38	14	13	11	-3	55
10	Nott'm Forest	38	13	15	10	+8	54
11	Aston Villa	35	13	14	8	+12	53
12	Hull	38	14	9	15	-2	51
13	Birmingham	39	12	14	13	+3	50
14	Brentford	37	13	10	14	+10	49
15	Swansea	36	13	8	15	-1	47
16	Stoke	38	10	17	11	-5	47
17	Blackburn	38	12	11	15	-8	47
18	QPR	38	12	8	18	-14	44
19	Wigan	38	10	9	19	-16	39
20	Millwall	37	9	10	18	-14	37
21	Reading	38	8	13	17	-16	37
22	Rotherham	38	7	15	16	-21	36
23	Bolton	38	7	8	23	-37	29
24	Ipswich	38	3	15	20	-32	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	19	13	3	3	+22	42
2	Norwich	19	13	2	4	+12	41
3	Brentford	19	11	3	5	+20	36
4	Leeds	18	11	3	4	+14	36
5	Derby	18	9	7	2	+10	34
6	Nott'm Forest	19	10	4	5	+9	34
7	West Brom	19	9	6	4	+17	33
8	Wigan	19	9	6	4	+6	33
9	Hull	19	9	5	5	+13	32
10	Sheffield Weds	19	8	8	3	+5	32
11	Preston	19	7	9	3	+10	30
12	Blackburn	19	8	6	5	+8	30
13	Aston Villa	17	7	8	2	+10	29
14	Stoke	19	8	5	6	+2	29
15	Swansea	17	8	4	5	+6	28
16	Middlesbrough	18	7	6	5	+5	27
17	Bristol City	19	7	6	6	+3	27
18	QPR	19	8	3	8	+1	27
19	Birmingham	19	6	8	5	+6	26
20	Rotherham	19	6	8	5	-3	26
21	Millwall	18	6	6	6	-2	24
22	Reading	19	6	4	9	-4	22
23	Ipswich	19	2	10	7	-7	16
24	Bolton	19	4	4	11	-16	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	19	10	7	2	+17	37
2	West Brom	18	10	3	5	+6	33
3	Sheffield United	19	9	5	5	+8	32
4	Leeds	18	9	4	5	+5	31
5	Middlesbrough	19	8	7	4	+4	31
6	Bristol City	17	8	4	5	+4	28
7	Preston	19	8	3	8	-2	27
8	Aston Villa	18	6	6	6	+2	24
9	Birmingham	20	6	6	8	-3	24
10	Sheffield Weds	19	6	5	8	-8	23
11	Derby	16	6	4	6	+1	22
12	Nott'm Forest	19	3	11	5	-1	20
13	Swansea	19	5	4	10	-7	19
14	Hull	19	5	4	10	-15	19
15	Stoke	19	2	12	5	-7	18
16	QPR	19	4	5	10	-15	17
17	Blackburn	19	4	5	10	-16	17
18	Reading	19	2	9	8	-12	15
19	Brentford	18	2	7	9	-10	13
20	Millwall	19	3	4	12	-12	13
21	Bolton	19	3	4	12	-21	13
22	Rotherham	19	1	7	11	-18	10
23	Ipswich	19	1	5	13	-25	8
24	Wigan	19	1	3	15	-22	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.