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La Liga

Referee: Jesus Gil Manzano

Celta

T U T T T

3–2

Full-time

Villarreal

S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celta Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

0,3

1,5

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,7

This season — La Liga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 21%

21%

Points per game

0,9

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

54%

Both score Ø 58%

61%

54%

Average goals

3,0

2,4

Scored

1,3

1,1

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

63% Possession 37%

15 Shots 14

6 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 7

2 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Celta 18. · Villarreal 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	29	21	6	2	+48	69
2	Ath Madrid	28	16	8	4	+20	56
3	Real Madrid	28	17	3	8	+17	54
4	Getafe	29	12	10	7	+10	46
5	Alaves	28	12	8	8	+0	44
6	Sevilla	28	12	7	9	+11	43
7	Valencia	28	8	16	4	+7	40
8	Ath Bilbao	29	9	13	7	-2	40
9	Betis	28	11	6	11	-4	39
10	Sociedad	28	9	9	10	+0	36
11	Leganes	29	9	9	11	-5	36
12	Eibar	28	8	11	9	-2	35
13	Girona	29	8	10	11	-7	34
14	Espanol	29	9	7	13	-11	34
15	Levante	28	8	7	13	-11	31
16	Villarreal	28	6	11	11	-4	29
17	Valladolid	28	7	8	13	-16	29
18	Celta	28	6	7	15	-11	25
19	Vallecano	28	6	5	17	-21	23
20	Huesca	28	5	7	16	-19	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	15	11	3	1	+28	36
2	Ath Madrid	14	11	2	1	+16	35
3	Real Madrid	14	9	1	4	+13	28
4	Sevilla	13	8	3	2	+13	27
5	Eibar	15	7	5	3	+9	26
6	Getafe	14	8	1	5	+9	25
7	Ath Bilbao	15	6	7	2	+3	25
8	Espanol	14	8	1	5	+0	25
9	Alaves	13	6	6	1	+6	24
10	Leganes	14	6	6	2	+5	24
11	Valencia	15	4	10	1	+8	22
12	Betis	15	6	4	5	-2	22
13	Sociedad	14	4	5	5	+0	17
14	Celta	14	4	4	6	+0	16
15	Villarreal	15	3	6	6	+0	15
16	Levante	13	4	3	6	-7	15
17	Huesca	14	3	4	7	-5	13
18	Vallecano	14	3	4	7	-9	13
19	Valladolid	13	3	3	7	-8	12
20	Girona	15	2	6	7	-9	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	14	10	3	1	+20	33
2	Real Madrid	14	8	2	4	+4	26
3	Girona	14	6	4	4	+2	22
4	Ath Madrid	14	5	6	3	+4	21
5	Getafe	15	4	9	2	+1	21
6	Alaves	15	6	2	7	-6	20
7	Sociedad	14	5	4	5	+0	19
8	Valencia	13	4	6	3	-1	18
9	Betis	13	5	2	6	-2	17
10	Valladolid	15	4	5	6	-8	17
11	Sevilla	15	4	4	7	-2	16
12	Levante	15	4	4	7	-4	16
13	Ath Bilbao	14	3	6	5	-5	15
14	Villarreal	13	3	5	5	-4	14
15	Leganes	15	3	3	9	-10	12
16	Vallecano	14	3	1	10	-12	10
17	Celta	14	2	3	9	-11	9
18	Espanol	15	1	6	8	-11	9
19	Eibar	13	1	6	6	-11	9
20	Huesca	14	2	3	9	-14	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.