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Premier League

Referee: Craig Pawson

Watford

T S U T T

1–2

Full-time

Stoke

S S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,0

2,7

Scored

0,3

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

This season — Premier League · 29/30 matches

Win Ø 37%

34%

40%

Points per game

1,3

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

41%

43%

Both score Ø 39%

38%

40%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,1

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

52% Possession 48%

9 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 2

2 Offside 4

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 14. · Stoke 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	30	18	9	3	+22	63
2	Tottenham	30	16	10	4	+29	58
3	Arsenal	30	16	7	7	+18	55
4	Man City	29	15	6	8	+21	51
5	West Ham	29	13	10	6	+12	49
6	Man United	29	13	8	8	+10	47
7	Southampton	30	12	8	10	+8	44
8	Liverpool	28	12	8	8	+6	44
9	Stoke	30	12	7	11	-4	43
10	Chelsea	29	10	10	9	+4	40
11	West Brom	29	10	9	10	-6	39
12	Everton	29	9	11	9	+10	38
13	Bournemouth	30	10	8	12	-9	38
14	Watford	29	10	7	12	-1	37
15	Crystal Palace	29	9	6	14	-7	33
16	Swansea	30	8	9	13	-10	33
17	Sunderland	29	6	7	16	-19	25
18	Norwich	30	6	7	17	-23	25
19	Newcastle	29	6	6	17	-26	24
20	Aston Villa	30	3	7	20	-35	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	15	9	5	1	+10	32
2	Man City	15	10	1	4	+22	31
3	Tottenham	15	8	5	2	+15	29
4	Man United	14	8	4	2	+12	28
5	Arsenal	14	8	3	3	+9	27
6	West Ham	14	7	5	2	+8	26
7	Southampton	15	7	3	5	+9	24
8	Stoke	15	7	2	6	+1	23
9	West Brom	15	6	4	5	-1	22
10	Chelsea	15	5	6	4	+5	21
11	Liverpool	13	5	5	3	+2	20
12	Swansea	15	5	5	5	-4	20
13	Watford	15	5	4	6	+1	19
14	Bournemouth	15	5	4	6	-3	19
15	Newcastle	14	4	5	5	+0	17
16	Norwich	15	4	5	6	-3	17
17	Everton	16	4	4	8	+1	16
18	Sunderland	14	4	4	6	+1	16
19	Crystal Palace	15	4	2	9	-5	14
20	Aston Villa	15	2	4	9	-14	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	15	9	4	2	+12	31
2	Tottenham	15	8	5	2	+14	29
3	Arsenal	16	8	4	4	+9	28
4	Liverpool	15	7	3	5	+4	24
5	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+4	23
6	Everton	13	5	7	1	+9	22
7	Southampton	15	5	5	5	-1	20
8	Man City	14	5	5	4	-1	20
9	Stoke	15	5	5	5	-5	20
10	Chelsea	14	5	4	5	-1	19
11	Man United	15	5	4	6	-2	19
12	Crystal Palace	14	5	4	5	-2	19
13	Bournemouth	15	5	4	6	-6	19
14	Watford	14	5	3	6	-2	18
15	West Brom	14	4	5	5	-5	17
16	Swansea	15	3	4	8	-6	13
17	Sunderland	15	2	3	10	-20	9
18	Norwich	15	2	2	11	-20	8
19	Newcastle	15	2	1	12	-26	7
20	Aston Villa	15	1	3	11	-21	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.