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Premier League

Referee: Jonathan Moss

Liverpool

S U T T U

3–2

Full-time

Aston Villa

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,5

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

This season — Premier League · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,5

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

62% Possession 38%

21 Shots 10

12 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 9

11 Corners 1

3 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 13. · Aston Villa 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	7	5	0	2	+7	15
2	Man United	6	4	1	1	+4	13
3	West Ham	6	4	0	2	+6	12
4	Leicester	6	3	3	0	+4	12
5	Tottenham	7	3	3	1	+4	12
6	Arsenal	6	3	1	2	+0	10
7	Everton	6	2	3	1	+3	9
8	Swansea	6	2	3	1	+2	9
9	Crystal Palace	6	3	0	3	+1	9
10	Watford	6	2	3	1	+0	9
11	Norwich	6	2	2	2	-1	8
12	West Brom	6	2	2	2	-2	8
13	Liverpool	6	2	2	2	-3	8
14	Bournemouth	6	2	1	3	-1	7
15	Chelsea	6	2	1	3	-3	7
16	Southampton	6	1	3	2	-1	6
17	Aston Villa	6	1	1	4	-3	4
18	Stoke	6	0	3	3	-4	3
19	Newcastle	6	0	2	4	-6	2
20	Sunderland	6	0	2	4	-7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	4	2	2	0	+4	8
2	Leicester	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Man United	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Swansea	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Man City	3	2	0	1	+4	6
6	Watford	3	1	2	0	+1	5
7	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+1	4
8	Bournemouth	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Everton	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Norwich	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Arsenal	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Liverpool	3	1	1	1	-2	4
13	West Ham	3	1	0	2	+0	3
14	Southampton	3	1	0	2	-1	3
15	Crystal Palace	3	1	0	2	-1	3
16	Newcastle	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Stoke	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Aston Villa	3	0	1	2	-2	1
19	Sunderland	3	0	1	2	-3	1
20	West Brom	3	0	1	2	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Ham	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Man City	4	3	0	1	+3	9
3	West Brom	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Crystal Palace	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	Man United	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Arsenal	3	2	0	1	+0	6
7	Everton	3	1	2	0	+3	5
8	Leicester	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Tottenham	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Watford	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Norwich	3	1	1	1	-1	4
12	Liverpool	3	1	1	1	-1	4
13	Southampton	3	0	3	0	+0	3
14	Aston Villa	3	1	0	2	-1	3
15	Bournemouth	3	1	0	2	-2	3
16	Chelsea	3	1	0	2	-4	3
17	Swansea	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Stoke	3	0	2	1	-2	2
19	Sunderland	3	0	1	2	-4	1
20	Newcastle	3	0	1	2	-4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.