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Conference League
Referee: N Walsh
Shakhtar Donetsk
S S U S T
3–0
Full-time
AZ Alkmaar
S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Shakhtar Donetsk AZ Alkmaar
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,2
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,3
3,2
Scored
1,7
2,2
Conceded
0,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 10/16 matches
Win Ø 65%
60%
69%
Points per game
2,0
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 62%
60%
63%
Both score Ø 48%
70%
25%
Average goals
2,7
3,1
Scored
1,7
2,2
Conceded
1,0
0,9
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,78 xG 0,49
51% Possession 49%
12 Shots 9
6 Shots on target 3
4 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 7
1 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 7
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Shakhtar Donetsk AZ Alkmaar
A. Bondarenko 🔁
↦ Isaque Silva
24′
Half-time 0–0
46′
🔁 E. Dijkstra
↦ S. Maikuma
48′
🟨 Alexandre Penetra
55′
🔁 R. Daal
↦ I. Sadiq
Pedro Henrique 🟨
59′
64′
🟨 Mees de Wit
1–0 Pedrinho ⚽
72′
Eguinaldo 🔁
↦ Newerton
73′
73′
🔁 A. Oufkir
↦ Weslley Patati
L. Traore 🔁
↦ Kaua Elias
74′
74′
🔁 M. Meerdink
↦ T. Parrott
2–0 Alisson ⚽
81′
3–0 Alisson ⚽
Eguinaldo
83′
Y. Nazaryna 🔁
↦ Pedrinho
89′
Y. Konoplya 🔁
↦ Alisson
89′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Shakhtar Donetsk

4-1-4-1
31 D. Riznyk G
17 V. Tobias D
5 V. Bondar D
22 M. Matviienko D
13 P. Henrique D
27 O. Ocheretko M
30 Alisson M
10 Pedrinho M
14 Isaque Silva M
11 Newerton M
19 Kaua Elias F
Bench (12)
48 D. Tvardovskyi
4 Marlon
2 L. Traore
68 P. Obah
49 Luca Meirelles
9 M. Shved
29 Y. Nazaryna
26 Y. Konoplya
21 A. Bondarenko
16 I. Azarovi
7 Eguinaldo
37 Lucas Ferreira

Coach: Arda Turan

AZ Alkmaar

3-4-3
41 J. Zoet G
3 W. Goes D
5 Penetra D
23 B. van Duijl D
2 S. Maikuma M
26 K. Smit M
10 S. Mijnans M
34 M. de Wit M
7 Weslley Patati F
9 T. Parrott F
11 I. Sadiq F
Bench (12)
12 H. Verhulst
31 D. Deen
4 M. Dekker
27 R. Daal
18 R. Ichihara
15 M. Chavez Garcia
24 A. Oufkir
33 M. Sin
35 M. Meerdink
22 E. Dijkstra
45 B. Kovacs
74 K. Boogaard

Coach: Leeroy Echteld

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

N Walsh · 171 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.