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Europa League
Referee: Marco Guida
Porto
S S S S U
1–1
Full-time
Nott'm Forest
U T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Nott'm Forest
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,2
2,3
Scored
2,2
1,3
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 10/12 matches
Win Ø 60%
70%
50%
Points per game
2,3
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 51%
60%
42%
Average goals
2,5
2,7
Scored
1,7
1,8
Conceded
0,8
0,9
Goal diff per game
+0,9
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,16 xG 0,45
52% Possession 48%
16 Shots 6
8 Shots on target 2
3 Blocked shots 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 7
5 Corners 2
0 Offside 3
4 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

23. Oct -25 Nott'm Forest – Porto 2–0

Match report

Porto Nott'm Forest
1–0 William Gomes ⚽
G. Veiga
11′
13′
⚽ M. Fernandes 2–0
own goal
Gabri Veiga 🟨
15′
A. Costa 🔁
↦ M. Fernandes
19′
Half-time 2–0
46′
🔁 N. Milenkovic
↦ Murillo
46′
🔁 Igor Jesus
↦ C. Wood
D. Gul 🔁
↦ T. Moffi
59′
Pepê 🔁
↦ B. Sainz
59′
V. Froholdt 🔁
↦ G. Veiga
59′
60′
🔁 O. Hutchinson
↦ M. Gibbs-White
61′
🔁 N. Williams
↦ D. Bakwa
66′
ℹ️ Igor Jesus
VAR: Goal cancelled
A. Varela 🔁
↦ S. Fofana
74′
74′
🔁 I. Sangare
↦ J. McAtee
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Porto

4-3-3
99 D. Costa G
52 M. Fernandes D
3 Thiago Silva D
5 J. Bednarek D
12 Zaidu D
42 S. Fofana M
13 P. Rosario M
10 G. Veiga M
7 William Gomes F
29 T. Moffi F
17 B. Sainz F
Bench (12)
14 Claudio Ramos
24 J. Costa
4 J. Kiwior
21 D. Prpic
27 D. Gul
11 Pepê
74 F. Moura
22 A. Varela
8 V. Froholdt
86 R. Mora
20 A. Costa
58 T. Silva

Coach: Francesco Farioli

Nott'm Forest

3-4-2-1
27 S. Ortega G
44 Z. Abbott D
5 Murillo D
4 Morato D
29 D. Bakwa M
22 R. Yates M
16 N. Dominguez M
14 D. Ndoye M
10 M. Gibbs-White F
24 J. McAtee F
11 C. Wood F
Bench (12)
26 M. Sels
6 I. Sangare
31 N. Milenkovic
3 N. Williams
19 Igor Jesus
34 O. Aina
7 C. Hudson-Odoi
20 L. Lucca
21 O. Hutchinson
65 J. Hanks
51 A. Whitehall
61 J. Sinclair

Coach: Vitor Pereira

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Marco Guida · 80 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,0 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
21,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.