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Conference League
Referee: Damian Kos
Crystal Palace
S S S T U
0–1
Full-time
AEK Larnaca
S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Crystal Palace AEK Larnaca
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
67%
100%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
3,2
3,7
Scored
1,8
2,0
Conceded
1,3
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 3/1 matches
Win Ø 84%
67%
100%
Points per game
2,3
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
0%
100%
Both score Ø 0%
0%
0%
Average goals
1,0
4,0
Scored
1,0
4,0
Conceded
0,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+4,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,66 xG 0,17
67% Possession 33%
15 Shots 4
1 Shots on target 2
5 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 1
8 Corners 2
3 Offside 1
16 Free kicks against 16
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Crystal Palace AEK Larnaca
19′
🔁 D. Ivanovic
↦ Y. Chacon
43′
🟨 Pere Pons
Half-time 0–1
51′
⚽ R. Bajic 0–1
M. Rohden
E. Nketiah 🔁
↦ J. Canvot
60′
D. Kamada 🔁
↦ J. Lerma
71′
A. Wharton 🔁
↦ Y. Pino
71′
79′
🔁 Jimmy Suarez
↦ P. Pons
79′
🔁 K. Angielski
↦ R. Bajic
Jean-Philippe Mateta 🟨
86′
C. Uche 🔁
↦ I. Sarr
87′
R. Esse 🔁
↦ W. Hughes
87′
Edward Nketiah 🟨
88′
90′
🟨 Marcus Rohdén
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Crystal Palace

3-4-2-1
1 D. Henderson G
23 J. Canvot D
5 M. Lacroix D
6 M. Guehi D
2 D. Munoz M
19 W. Hughes M
8 J. Lerma M
3 T. Mitchell M
7 I. Sarr F
10 Y. Pino F
14 J. Mateta F
Bench (12)
31 R. Matthews
44 W. Benitez
9 E. Nketiah
12 C. Uche
17 N. Clyne
18 D. Kamada
20 A. Wharton
21 R. Esse
26 C. Richards
42 K. Rodney
55 J. Devenny
59 R. Cardines

Coach: Oliver Glasner

AEK Larnaca

5-4-1
1 Z. Alomerovic G
21 Miramon D
15 H. Milicevic D
27 V. Roberge D
4 E. Saborit D
93 J. Gnali D
8 M. Rohden M
7 Ledes Gustavo M
17 P. Pons M
18 Y. Chacon M
11 R. Bajic F
Bench (10)
51 A. Paraskevas
99 D. Demetriou
2 P. I. Ioannou
6 Jimmy Suarez
9 D. Ivanovic
10 W. Rubio
19 K. Angielski
22 G. Ekpolo
29 G. Naoum
41 Mathias Gonzalez

Coach: Joseba Imanol Idiakez Barkaiztegi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.