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Europa League
Referee: Andris Treimanis
Legia
S S U T S
2–1
Full-time
AEK Larnaca
S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Legia AEK Larnaca
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,0
2,3
Scored
1,7
1,3
Conceded
1,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 60%
60%
60%
Points per game
2,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
60%
40%
Both score Ø 60%
60%
60%
Average goals
2,8
2,4
Scored
1,4
1,6
Conceded
1,4
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

4 Yellow cards 6
0 Red cards 1

Recent head-to-head meetings

7. Aug -25 AEK Larnaca – Legia 4–1

Match report

Legia AEK Larnaca
Artur Jędrzejczyk 🟨
1′
1–0 J. Nsame ⚽
P. Wszolek
11′
2–0 M. Rajovic ⚽
V. Bichakhchyan
16′
Rúben Vinagre 🟨
37′
Half-time 2–0
46′
🟨 Valentin Roberge
52′
⚽ D. Ivanovic 2–1
M. Alfarela 🔁
↦ M. Rajovic
61′
63′
🟨 Jeremie Gnali
68′
🟨 Hrvoje Miličević
71′
🔁 E. Cabrera
↦ K. Angielski
P. Stojanovic 🔁
↦ V. Bichakhchyan
71′
W. Urbanski 🔁
↦ R. Morishita
71′
73′
🟨 Jeremie Gnali
73′
🟥 Jeremie Gnali
Kacper Tobiasz 🟨
78′
A. Reca 🔁
↦ R. Vinagre
79′
I. Shkurin 🔁
↦ A. Jedrzejczyk
79′
85′
🟨 Đorđe Ivanović
86′
🔁 Jimmy Suarez
↦ D. Ivanovic
86′
🔁 Miramon
↦ Y. Chacon
97′
🔁 Danny Henriques
↦ A. Garcia
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Legia

4-3-3
1 K. Tobiasz
7 P. Wszolek
24 J. Ziolkowski
55 A. Jedrzejczyk
3 S. Kapuadi
21 V. Bichakhchyan
8 R. Augustyniak
19 R. Vinagre
25 R. Morishita
18 J. Nsame
29 M. Rajovic
Bench (12)
27 G. Kobylak
50 W. Banasik
4 M. Burch
9 M. Alfarela
12 R. Pankov
13 A. Reca
17 I. Shkurin
20 J. Zewlakow
22 J. Elitim
23 P. Kun
30 P. Stojanovic
53 W. Urbanski

Coach: Edward Marius Iordănescu

AEK Larnaca

4-3-3
1 Z. Alomerovic
22 G. Ekpolo
27 V. Roberge
14 A. Garcia
93 J. Gnali
17 P. Pons
15 H. Milicevic
7 Ledes Gustavo
9 D. Ivanovic
19 K. Angielski
18 Y. Chacon
Bench (12)
51 A. Paraskevas
99 D. Demetriou
2 P. Ioannou
6 Jimmy Suarez
11 R. Bajic
20 Y. Amyn
21 Miramon
24 Danny Henriques
30 E. Cabrera
36 C. Loukaidis
37 D. Gerasimou
41 Mathias Gonzalez

Coach: Joseba Imanol Idiakez Barkaiztegi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.