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Conference League
Referee: S Ebner
FK Tobol Kostanay
U S U S T
1–0
Full-time
Derry City
T U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

FK Tobol Kostanay Derry City
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
2,2
2,3
Scored
1,2
1,0
Conceded
1,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,3
This season — Conference League · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 63%
75%
50%
Both score Ø 63%
75%
50%
Average goals
2,5
2,5
Scored
1,5
1,5
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

11 Shots 6
3 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 1
2 Offside 1
16 Free kicks against 17
6 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

FK Tobol Kostanay Derry City
Ramazan Orazov 🟨
4′
Roman Asrankulov 🟨
15′
Half-time 0–0
Samat Zharynbetov 🟨
48′
50′
🟨 Adam O'Reilly
Bojan Mlađović 🟨
59′
61′
🟨 Mark Connolly
1–0 R. Asrankulov ⚽
65′
Islam Chesnokov 🟨
67′
J. Ilić 🔁
↦ S. Zharynbetov
68′
Y. Shakhov 🔁
↦ R. Orazov
68′
A. Gabaraev 🔁
↦ B. Kairov
68′
69′
🔁 P. McEleney
↦ A. OReilly
69′
🔁 J. McGonigle
↦ C. Kavanagh
71′
🟨 William Patching
I. Ivanović 🔁
↦ M. Vukadinović
79′
82′
🔁 J. McEneff
↦ W. Patching
P. Zabelin 🔁
↦ S. Muzhikov
89′
89′
🔁 B. Kavanagh
↦ P. McMullan
Evgen Shakhov 🟨
95′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

FK Tobol Kostanay

4-2-3-1
23 I. Konovalov G
24 B. Kairov D
4 I. Rogač M
30 B. Mlađović D
3 R. Asrankulov D
14 S. Zharynbetov M
10 S. Muzhikov M
11 I. Chesnokov F
20 R. Orazov M
21 M. Vukadinović M
8 S. Deblé F
Bench (11)
6 J. Ilić
90 Y. Shakhov
15 A. Gabaraev
70 I. Ivanović
13 P. Zabelin
17 T. Zhakupov
19 M. Mrkaić
18 P. Kireenko
5 D. Semchenkov
12 S. Busurmanov
51 B. Galym

Coach: M. Ćurčić

Derry City

4-3-3
1 B. Maher G
2 R. Boyce D
6 M. Connolly D
17 C. McJannet D
14 B. Doherty D
28 A. O'Reilly M
15 S. Diallo M
8 W. Patching M
12 P. McMullan M
29 C. Kavanagh F
7 M. Duffy M
Bench (10)
10 P. McEleney
9 J. McGonigle
22 J. McEneff
20 B. Kavanagh
26 T. Ryan
21 D. Mullen
16 S. McEleney
23 C. Dummigan
45 J. Lemoignan
3 C. Coll

Coach: R. Higgins

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Ebner · 100 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
28,0 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.