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Conference League
Referee: W Collum
Gent
U S T T S
1–0
Full-time
Qarabag
S U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Gent Qarabag
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,7
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,3
2,0
Scored
1,5
1,5
Conceded
0,8
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+1,0
This season — Conference League · 7/1 matches
Win Ø 65%
29%
100%
Points per game
1,1
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 22%
43%
0%
Both score Ø 15%
29%
0%
Average goals
2,4
1,0
Scored
1,4
1,0
Conceded
1,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
+0,4
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,68 xG 0,49
56% Possession 44%
11 Shots 8
4 Shots on target 1
3 Blocked shots 6
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
7 Corners 7
3 Offside 1
16 Free kicks against 19
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

16. Feb -23 Qarabag – Gent 1–0

Match report

Gent Qarabag
14′
🟨 Marko Vešović
41′
🟨 Musa Qurbanlı
Half-time 0–0
M. Fofana 🔁
↦ A. Castro-Montes
46′
50′
🟨 Júlio Romão
Laurent Depoitre 🟨
51′
63′
🔁 A. Diakhaby
↦ M. Qurbanlı
S. Marreh 🔁
↦ B. Godeau
71′
G. Orban 🔁
↦ L. Depoitre
71′
1–0 G. Orban ⚽
M. Ngadeu
74′
Núrio Fortuna 🟨
77′
80′
🔁 Y. Benzia
↦ Leandro Andrade
Hugo Cuypers 🟨
85′
104′
🔁 R. Xhixha
↦ A. Zoubir
107′
🔁 T. Bayramov
↦ E. Cəfərquliyev
107′
🔁 Q. Qarayev
↦ Júlio Romão
C. Van Daele 🔁
↦ Hong Hyun-Seok
118′
2–0 J. De Sart ⚽
121′
122′
⚽ R. Almeyda 2–1
3–1 H. Cuypers ⚽
123′
124′
⚽ A. Diakhaby 3–2
4–2 G. Orban ⚽
125′
126′
⚽ T. Bayramov 4–3
5–3 S. Marreh ⚽
127′
128′
❌ Y. Benzia
penalty missed
6–3 C. Van Daele ⚽
129′
Full-time 6–3

Line-ups

Gent

3-4-1-2
33 D. Roef G
31 B. Godeau D
5 M. Ngadeu D
23 J. Torunarigha D
14 A. Castro-Montes M
24 S. Kums M
13 J. De Sart M
25 Núrio Fortuna M
7 Hong Hyun-Seok F
11 H. Cuypers F
29 L. Depoitre F
Bench (12)
19 M. Fofana
22 S. Marreh
20 G. Orban
35 C. Van Daele
10 J. Hauge
28 R. Van Hauter
27 R. Van Den Bergh
1 P. Nardi
2 J. Okumu
15 B. Lagae
12 N. De Ridder
39 M. Fernandez

Coach: H. Vanhaezebrouck

Qarabag

4-2-3-1
23 L. Gugeshashvili G
29 M. Vešović D
13 B. Mustafazadə D
55 B. Hüseynov D
44 E. Cəfərquliyev D
6 Júlio Romão M
20 R. Almeyda M
77 R. Şeydayev M
15 Leandro Andrade M
10 A. Zoubir M
9 M. Qurbanlı F
Bench (12)
87 A. Diakhaby
7 Y. Benzia
99 R. Xhixha
27 T. Bayramov
2 Q. Qarayev
4 R. Məmmədov
18 İ. İbrahimli
89 A. Ramazanov
5 M. Medvedev
90 N. Axundzadə
19 F. Ozobić
94 A. Arazli

Coach: Q. Qurbanov

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

W Collum · 109 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
24,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.