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Taça de Portugal

Caldas

T S S S U

0–3

Full-time

Sp Braga

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Caldas Sp Braga

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

1,8

2,0

Scored

1,5

Conceded

0,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Taça de Portugal · 4/2 matches

Win Ø 88%

75%

100%

Points per game

2,5

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,0

3,5

Scored

2,0

2,5

Conceded

0,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Caldas 3. · Sp Braga 22. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lusitano Évora 1911	4	4	0	0	+12	12
2	Vila Meã	5	4	0	1	+7	12
3	Caldas	4	3	1	0	+8	10
4	União de Leiria	4	3	1	0	+5	10
5	Torreense	4	3	1	0	+4	10
6	Porto	3	3	0	0	+10	9
7	Farense	4	3	0	1	+7	9
8	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+6	9
9	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+5	9
10	Comércio Indústria	4	3	0	1	+3	9
11	Fafe	3	3	0	0	+3	9
12	AVS	3	2	1	0	+8	7
13	Espinho	3	2	1	0	+5	7
14	Academico Viseu	3	2	1	0	+4	7
15	1º Dezembro	4	2	1	1	+0	7
16	Mortágua	4	2	1	1	-1	7
17	Lusitânia Lourosa	3	2	0	1	+6	6
18	Alpendorada	3	2	0	1	+5	6
19	Casa Pia	3	2	0	1	+5	6
20	CD Olivais e Moscavide	3	2	0	1	+4	6
21	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	+4	6
22	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+3	6
23	Amarante	3	2	0	1	+2	6
24	CF Os Belenenses	3	2	0	1	+2	6
25	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+1	6
26	Famalicao	3	2	0	1	+1	6
27	Leixoes	3	2	0	1	+1	6
28	Vila Caíz	3	2	0	1	+1	6
29	Atlético CP	3	2	0	1	+1	6
30	Vila Real	3	2	0	1	-1	6
31	Sintrense	3	2	0	1	-1	6
32	AD Marco 09	3	2	0	1	-1	6
33	Silves	3	2	0	1	-2	6
34	Celoricense	3	2	0	1	-2	6
35	Marinhense	4	1	2	1	+3	5
36	Anadia	3	1	2	0	+1	5
37	Ovarense	2	1	1	0	+6	4
38	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	1	0	+6	4
39	Tondela	2	1	1	0	+4	4
40	Moncarapachense	2	1	1	0	+3	4
41	Gouveia	2	1	1	0	+2	4
42	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	+2	4
43	Oliveirense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
44	Os Marialvas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
45	SC Covilha	3	1	1	1	-1	4
46	Peniche	2	1	0	1	+7	3
47	Sacavenense	2	1	0	1	+5	3
48	Atlético Malveira	2	1	0	1	+5	3
49	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+4	3
50	Bragança	2	1	0	1	+4	3
51	Trofense	2	1	0	1	+3	3
52	Felgueiras 1932	2	1	0	1	+2	3
53	O Elvas	2	1	0	1	+2	3
54	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+2	3
55	Naval 1893	2	1	0	1	+2	3
56	São João Ver	2	1	0	1	+1	3
57	Rebordosa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
58	Salgueiros	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Nacional	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	Arouca	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	0	1	+0	3
63	Estoril	2	1	0	1	+0	3
64	Correlhã	2	1	0	1	+0	3
65	Chaves	2	1	0	1	+0	3
66	Oriental Lisboa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
67	Mirandela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
68	União Lamas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
69	Uniao Nogueirense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
70	Nazarenos	2	1	0	1	+0	3
71	Ançã	2	1	0	1	-1	3
72	Monção	2	1	0	1	-1	3
73	Machico	2	1	0	1	-1	3
74	Resende	2	1	0	1	-1	3
75	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	2	1	0	1	-3	3
76	Brito	2	1	0	1	-4	3
77	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
78	AD Fornos Algodres	2	1	0	1	-5	3
79	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
80	Samora Correir	1	0	1	0	+0	1
81	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
82	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
83	Rebordelo	2	0	1	1	-2	1
84	Portimonense B	2	0	1	1	-2	1
85	Charneca Caparica	2	0	1	1	-2	1
86	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Oliveira Hospital	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Tirsense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Lagoa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	AR São Martinho	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Carregal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Academica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Juventude Évora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
105	Vilaverdense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
106	Quarteirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
107	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
108	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-1	0
109	Florgrade	1	0	0	1	-1	0
110	Cinfães	1	0	0	1	-1	0
111	Mafra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
112	Celeirós	1	0	0	1	-1	0
113	Sourense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
114	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
115	Pontassolense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
116	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
117	Estrela	1	0	0	1	-2	0
118	Aparecida GO	1	0	0	1	-2	0
119	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-2	0
120	Leça	1	0	0	1	-2	0
121	União Santarém	1	0	0	1	-2	0
122	Paredes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
123	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
124	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
125	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
126	Vidago	1	0	0	1	-2	0
127	Valenciano	1	0	0	1	-3	0
128	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-3	0
129	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
130	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
131	Fátima	1	0	0	1	-3	0
132	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-3	0
133	Portalegrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
134	Varzim	1	0	0	1	-4	0
135	Almodôvar	1	0	0	1	-4	0
136	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
137	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
138	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-4	0
139	Operário	1	0	0	1	-5	0
140	Fayal	1	0	0	1	-5	0
141	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
142	Estrela Calheta	1	0	0	1	-6	0
143	SC Celoricense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
144	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
145	Urzelinense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
146	Lajense	2	0	0	2	-7	0
147	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-7	0
148	Ferreira Zêzere	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Caldas	3	3	0	0	+8	9
2	Comércio Indústria	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Porto	2	2	0	0	+6	6
4	Alpendorada	3	2	0	1	+5	6
5	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	Sintrense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Silves	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	CF Os Belenenses	3	2	0	1	+2	6
9	Vila Caíz	2	2	0	0	+2	6
10	Fafe	2	2	0	0	+2	6
11	Vila Meã	3	2	0	1	+1	6
12	Atlético CP	3	2	0	1	+1	6
13	Celoricense	3	2	0	1	-2	6
14	Ovarense	2	1	1	0	+6	4
15	Marinhense	2	1	1	0	+6	4
16	Espinho	2	1	1	0	+4	4
17	Moncarapachense	2	1	1	0	+3	4
18	Mortágua	2	1	1	0	+2	4
19	Peniche	2	1	0	1	+7	3
20	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	1	0	0	+6	3
21	Sacavenense	2	1	0	1	+5	3
22	Louletano	1	1	0	0	+5	3
23	Bragança	2	1	0	1	+4	3
24	Trofense	2	1	0	1	+3	3
25	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+3	3
26	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+3	3
27	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
28	Santa Clara	2	1	0	1	+2	3
29	Farense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
30	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	3
31	Salgueiros	1	1	0	0	+2	3
32	Gouveia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
33	Naval 1893	2	1	0	1	+2	3
34	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
35	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	1	0	0	+2	3
36	São João Ver	2	1	0	1	+1	3
37	Amarante	2	1	0	1	+1	3
38	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
40	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Resende	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Uniao Nogueirense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Correlhã	2	1	0	1	+0	3
44	Oriental Lisboa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	União Lamas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
46	Nazarenos	2	1	0	1	+0	3
47	Ançã	2	1	0	1	-1	3
48	SC Covilha	2	1	0	1	-1	3
49	AD Marco 09	2	1	0	1	-2	3
50	Vila Real	2	1	0	1	-3	3
51	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
52	AD Fornos Algodres	2	1	0	1	-5	3
53	União de Leiria	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Torreense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Portimonense B	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Tondela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	AVS	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	Anadia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
59	Charneca Caparica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
60	Rebordelo	2	0	1	1	-2	1
61	1º Dezembro	2	0	1	1	-2	1
62	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Tirsense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	AR São Martinho	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Carregal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Academica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Vilaverdense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Florgrade	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Cinfães	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Monção	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Aparecida GO	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Chaves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Paredes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Machico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Vidago	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Valenciano	1	0	0	1	-3	0
84	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-3	0
85	Portalegrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
86	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
87	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-4	0
88	Fayal	1	0	0	1	-5	0
89	Urzelinense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
90	Lajense	2	0	0	2	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	União de Leiria	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Torreense	3	3	0	0	+4	9
4	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	2	0	0	+8	6
5	AVS	2	2	0	0	+8	6
6	Vila Meã	2	2	0	0	+6	6
7	Casa Pia	2	2	0	0	+6	6
8	Farense	2	2	0	0	+5	6
9	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+2	6
10	1º Dezembro	2	2	0	0	+2	6
11	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+1	6
12	Famalicao	3	2	0	1	+1	6
13	Leixoes	3	2	0	1	+1	6
14	Academico Viseu	2	1	1	0	+3	4
15	Oliveirense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
16	Anadia	2	1	1	0	+1	4
17	Os Marialvas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
18	Atlético Malveira	2	1	0	1	+5	3
19	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	1	0	0	+5	3
20	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+4	3
21	Porto	1	1	0	0	+4	3
22	CD Olivais e Moscavide	2	1	0	1	+2	3
23	Felgueiras 1932	2	1	0	1	+2	3
24	O Elvas	2	1	0	1	+2	3
25	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Vila Real	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Machico	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Fafe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Monção	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Espinho	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	AD Marco 09	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Pacos Ferreira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Nacional	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Arouca	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Mirandela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	-3	3
42	Brito	2	1	0	1	-4	3
43	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Gouveia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	SC Covilha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Samora Correir	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Santa Clara	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Marinhense	2	0	1	1	-3	1
53	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Oliveira Hospital	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Lagoa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Louletano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Juventude Évora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	FC Serpa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Quarteirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Vila Caíz	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Uniao Nogueirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Mafra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Celeirós	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Sourense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Pontassolense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Estrela	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Charneca Caparica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Leça	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	União Santarém	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Portimonense B	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Resende	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
88	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
89	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-3	0
90	Sintrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
91	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
92	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
93	Fátima	1	0	0	1	-3	0
94	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-3	0
95	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
96	Silves	1	0	0	1	-4	0
97	Varzim	1	0	0	1	-4	0
98	Almodôvar	1	0	0	1	-4	0
99	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
100	Operário	1	0	0	1	-5	0
101	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
102	Estrela Calheta	1	0	0	1	-6	0
103	SC Celoricense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
104	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
105	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-7	0
106	Ferreira Zêzere	1	0	0	1	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Caldas Sp Braga

42′

🔁 V. Gomez

↦ G. Lagerbielke

Half-time 0–0

R. Alexandre 🔁

↦ Januario

46′

D. Clemente 🟨

49′

50′

⚽ F. Navarro 0–1

Gabriel Moscardo

53′

⚽ P. Oliveira 0–2

L. Lelo

59′

⚽ M. Dorgeles 0–3

R. Horta

R. Carreira 🔁

↦ D. Clemente

65′

D. Fernandes 🔁

↦ L. Farinha

65′

66′

🔁 Gorby

↦ R. Horta

66′

🔁 P. Victor

↦ R. Zalazar

M. Palmerio 🔁

↦ Yordy Marcelo

69′

M. Magalhaes 🔁

↦ Tarzan

75′

84′

🔁 Y. da Rocha

↦ F. Grillitsch

85′

🔁 G. Martinez

↦ F. Navarro

Full-time 0–3

Line-ups

Caldas

12 D. Almeida

2 Yordy Marcelo

14 D. Maneta

3 J. R. Pires Gomes

10 Januario

4 Pipo

8 D. Clemente

17 Goncas

30 E. Monteiro

25 L. Farinha

33 Tarzan

Bench (10)

1 W. Soares

66 R. Carreira

23 T. Catarino

6 M. Palmerio

79 J. Gata

7 R. Alexandre

21 D. Fernandes

87 Ewandro Santos

9 G. Chaves

27 M. Magalhaes

Sp Braga

T. Sa

B. Arrey-Mbi

15 P. Oliveira

G. Lagerbielke

M. Dorgeles

F. Grillitsch

Gabriel Moscardo

L. Lelo

R. Zalazar

F. Navarro

R. Horta

Bench (9)

78 J. Carvalho

2 V. Gomez

41 Y. da Rocha

29 Gorby

50 D. Rodrigues

6 Vitor Carvalho

8 J. Moutinho

77 G. Martinez

18 P. Victor

Coach: Carlos Vicens

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

–

🔒

–

🔒

B ✓

–

🔒

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

–

🔒

U1,5

–

🔒

O2,5 ✓

–

🔒

U2,5

–

🔒

O3,5

–

🔒

U3,5 ✓

–

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja

–

🔒

BLS nei ✓

–

🔒

Recent matches

23. Nov TP 9 months ago

19. Oct TP 11 months ago

20. Sep TP 1 year ago

19. Oct TP 1 year ago

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

Team trends

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Match report

Line-ups

Caldas

Sp Braga

Odds comparison

Recent matches