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Europa League
Referee: Balazs Berke
Sp Braga
U S S S T
3–4
Full-time
Genk
S U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Genk
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,2
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,3
2,2
Scored
1,8
1,3
Conceded
0,5
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 9/5 matches
Win Ø 65%
89%
40%
Points per game
2,8
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 37%
33%
40%
Both score Ø 31%
22%
40%
Average goals
2,3
2,2
Scored
2,1
1,4
Conceded
0,2
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,9
+0,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,55 xG 1,09
63% Possession 37%
20 Shots 9
6 Shots on target 8
7 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
9 Corners 2
1 Offside 1
6 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Sp Braga Genk
1–0 R. Zalazar
30′
45′
D. Heymans 1–1
K. Karetsas
Half-time 1–1
46′
🔁 J. Kongolo
↦ K. Nkuba
48′
Y. Sor 1–2
M. Dorgeles 🔁
↦ L. Lelo
56′
F. Grillitsch 🔁
↦ J. Moutinho
56′
F. Navarro 🔁
↦ A. El Ouazzani
56′
59′
Oh Hyeon-Gyu 1–3
D. Heymans
64′
🔁 Y. Medina
↦ Y. Sor
2–3 R. Zalazar
R. Horta
71′
72′
Y. Medina 2–4
K. Karetsas
P. Victor 🔁
↦ R. Horta
76′
76′
🔁 J. Steuckers
↦ K. Karetsas
76′
🔁 N. Sattlberger
↦ D. Heymans
76′
🔁 J. Erabi
↦ Oh Hyeon-Gyu
D. Rodrigues 🔁
↦ R. Zalazar
84′
3–4 F. Navarro
86′
Gabriel Martínez 🟨
90′
91′
🟨 Josue Ndenge Kongolo
Gustaf Lagerbielke 🟨
93′
Full-time 3–4

Line-ups

Sp Braga

3-4-2-1
1 L. Hornicek G
2 V. Gomez D
14 G. Lagerbielke D
26 B. Arrey-Mbi D
77 G. Martinez M
29 Gorby M
8 J. Moutinho M
5 L. Lelo M
10 R. Zalazar F
21 R. Horta F
9 A. El Ouazzani F
Bench (12)
12 T. Sa
36 A. Bellaarouch
4 S. Niakate
6 Vitor Carvalho
15 P. Oliveira
17 Gabriel Moscardo
18 P. Victor
20 M. Dorgeles
27 F. Grillitsch
39 F. Navarro
41 Y. da Rocha
50 D. Rodrigues

Coach: Juan Carlos Vicens Gómez

Genk

4-2-3-1
1 H. Van Crombrugge G
27 K. Nkuba D
3 M. Sadick D
6 M. Smets D
18 J. Kayembe D
17 P. Hrosovsky M
8 B. Heynen M
20 K. Karetsas M
38 D. Heymans M
14 Y. Sor M
9 Oh Hyeon-Gyu F
Bench (12)
26 T. Lawal
71 B. Stevens
7 J. Steuckers
19 Y. Medina
23 A. Bibout
24 N. Sattlberger
29 R. Mirisola
30 A. Yokoyama
32 N. Adedeji-Sternberg
34 A. Palacios
44 J. Kongolo
99 J. Erabi

Coach: Thorsten Fink

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.