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Champions League
Referee: F Zwayer
Ath Bilbao
U S T S T
2–3
Full-time
Sp Lisbon
S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Bilbao Sp Lisbon
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 58%
33%
83%
Points per game
1,2
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 83%
83%
83%
Both score Ø 84%
100%
67%
Average goals
4,2
3,3
Scored
2,0
2,7
Conceded
2,2
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+2,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 43%
29%
57%
Points per game
1,1
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 65%
43%
86%
Both score Ø 65%
43%
86%
Average goals
2,6
3,3
Scored
1,0
2,0
Conceded
1,6
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,6
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

0,57 xG 1,76
35% Possession 65%
9 Shots 9
2 Shots on target 6
3 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 0
6 Corners 7
0 Offside 3
22 Free kicks against 8
4 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Ath Bilbao Sp Lisbon
1–0 O. Sancet ⚽
3′
12′
⚽ O. Diomande 1–1
M. Araujo
26′
🔁 Matheus Reis
↦ G. Inacio
2–1 G. Guruzeta ⚽
28′
29′
🟨 Matheus Reis
Unai Gómez 🟨
34′
39′
🟨 Maximiliano Araújo
Gorka Guruzeta 🟨
44′
Half-time 2–1
49′
🟨 João Simões
A. Berenguer 🔁
↦ O. Sancet
50′
54′
🔁 H. Morita
↦ J. Simoes
54′
🔁 P. Goncalves
↦ D. Braganca
54′
🔁 E. Quaresma
↦ O. Diomande
55′
🟨 Pedro Gonçalves
62′
⚽ Trincao 2–2
M. Vesga 🔁
↦ I. Ruiz de Galarreta
66′
S. Sanchez 🔁
↦ U. Gomez
66′
Aitor Paredes 🟨
75′
79′
ℹ️ Geny Catamo
VAR: Penalty cancelled
N. Serrano 🔁
↦ R. Navarro
81′
A. Hierro 🔁
↦ G. Guruzeta
81′
Mikel Vesga 🟨
82′
86′
🟨 Eduardo Quaresma
87′
🔁 Alisson Santos
↦ Trincao
90′
⚽ Alisson Santos 2–3
Full-time 2–3

Line-ups

Ath Bilbao

4-2-3-1
1 U. Simon G
2 A. Gorosabel D
4 A. Paredes D
17 Y. Berchiche D
19 A. Boiro D
16 I. Ruiz de Galarreta M
30 A. Rego M
20 U. Gomez M
8 O. Sancet M
23 R. Navarro M
11 G. Guruzeta F
Bench (11)
27 A. Padilla
6 M. Vesga
7 A. Berenguer
12 J. Areso
15 I. Lekue
22 N. Serrano
31 A. Hierro
34 J. De Luis
35 I. Sanchez
40 E. Gift
44 S. Sanchez

Coach: Ernesto Valverde

Sp Lisbon

4-2-3-1
1 R. Silva G
22 I. Fresneda D
26 O. Diomande D
25 G. Inacio D
20 M. Araujo D
42 M. Hjulmand M
52 J. Simoes M
10 G. Catamo M
23 D. Braganca M
17 Trincao M
97 L. Suarez F
Bench (12)
12 J. Virginia
99 F. Silva
2 Matheus Reis
5 H. Morita
8 P. Goncalves
13 G. Vagiannidis
14 G. Kochorashvili
27 Alisson Santos
58 F. Goncalves
72 E. Quaresma
90 R. Nel
91 R. Mangas

Coach: Rui Borges

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

F Zwayer · 152 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.