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Copa del Rey

Referee: Alejandro Hernandez

Cultural Leonesa

T S T U U

3–4

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

U T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cultural Leonesa Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,3

1,5

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Copa del Rey · 3/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

3,7

1,0

Scored

2,7

1,0

Conceded

1,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–3

1,99 xG 2,91

59% Possession 41%

16 Shots 19

5 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 9

1 Offside 0

19 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Cultural Leonesa 10. · Ath Bilbao 53. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Betis	3	3	0	0	+11	-0.4	9
2	Alaves	3	3	0	0	+11	–	9
3	Osasuna	3	3	0	0	+9	–	9
4	Vallecano	3	3	0	0	+8	-1.4	9
5	Valencia	3	3	0	0	+8	+1.0	9
6	La Coruna	3	3	0	0	+7	+0.6	9
7	Santander	3	3	0	0	+6	–	9
8	Elche	3	3	0	0	+6	-0.3	9
9	Sociedad	3	3	0	0	+6	–	9
10	Cultural Leonesa	3	3	0	0	+5	–	9
11	Burgos	3	3	0	0	+4	+0.3	9
12	Albacete	3	2	1	0	+4	–	7
13	Getafe	3	2	0	1	+10	-0.3	6
14	Palma del Rio	3	2	0	1	+4	–	6
15	Eibar	3	2	0	1	+4	+0.3	6
16	Sant Just	3	2	0	1	+4	–	6
17	CF Talavera	3	2	0	1	+3	–	6
18	Granada	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.9	6
19	Huesca	3	2	0	1	+3	–	6
20	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.1	6
21	Eldense	3	2	0	1	+2	–	6
22	Ourense CF	3	2	0	1	+2	–	6
23	Mallorca	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.6	6
24	Atlético Baleares	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.5	6
25	Levante	3	2	0	1	+1	–	6
26	Sp Gijon	3	2	0	1	+1	–	6
27	Guadalajara	3	2	0	1	+0	-1.0	6
28	CD Sant Jordi	3	2	0	1	-2	–	6
29	Celta	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.1	5
30	Villarreal	3	1	1	1	+5	–	4
31	Puerto de Vega	3	1	1	1	+2	–	4
32	Sant Andreu	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.1	4
33	Antoniano	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
34	Real Murcia	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.4	4
35	Maracena	3	1	1	1	-3	–	4
36	CD Yuncos	3	1	1	1	-3	–	4
37	Deportivo Getxo	3	1	1	1	-6	–	4
38	Inter de Valdemoro	3	1	1	1	-9	–	4
39	Tenerife	2	1	0	1	+3	+0.1	3
40	Andorra	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
41	Leganes	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
42	Numancia	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
43	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
44	Cadiz	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
45	Ponferradina	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
46	Malaga	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
47	Extremadura 1924	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
48	Zaragoza	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
49	Almeria	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
50	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
51	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
52	Ceuta	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
53	Ath Bilbao	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
54	SD Negreira	3	1	0	2	+0	–	3
55	Navalcarnero	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
56	Girona	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
57	Cartagena	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.0	3
58	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
59	Manises	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
60	Real Ávila	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.4	3
61	Cieza	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
62	Torrent	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
63	Sabadell	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
64	Portugalete	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
65	Textil Escudo	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
66	Los Garres	3	1	0	2	-4	–	3
67	Antequera	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
68	Ibiza	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
69	Atlético Astorga	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
70	Tarazona	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
71	UD Ourense	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
72	Europa Fc	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
73	Langreo	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
74	Quintanar del Rey	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
75	Betis Valladolid	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
76	Ebro	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
77	Universitario FC	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
78	Mirandes	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
79	Sporting Ceuta	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
80	Reddis	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
81	Ferrol	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
82	Campanario	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
83	Pontevedra	2	0	1	1	-3	–	1
84	Alberite	2	0	1	1	-4	–	1
85	Orihuela	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
86	Constància	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
87	Mérida AD	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
88	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
89	Poblense	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
90	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
91	Atlético Tordesillas	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
92	Atlètic Lleida	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
93	Castellon	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
94	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
95	Valladolid	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
96	Caudal	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
97	Cordoba	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
98	Puente Genil	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
99	Oviedo	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
100	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
101	UD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
102	Ucam Murcia	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
103	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
104	Las Palmas	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
105	Estepona	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
106	Tropezón	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
107	Mutilvera	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
108	Juventud Torremolinos	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
109	Gimnastic	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
110	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
111	La Unión Atlético	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
112	Rayo Majadahonda	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
113	Azuaga	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
114	Lourdes	2	0	0	2	-3	–	0
115	Toledo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
116	Arenas Getxo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
117	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
118	San Fernando CD	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
119	Valle Egüés	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
120	Roda	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
121	Sámano	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
122	SD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
123	RSD Alcalá	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
124	Atletico Calatayud	2	0	0	2	-6	–	0
125	Ciudad de Lucena	1	0	0	1	-6	–	0
126	Atlético Melilla	2	0	0	2	-10	–	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Cultural Leonesa	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
2	Ourense CF	3	2	0	1	+2	–	6
3	Atlético Baleares	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.5	6
4	Guadalajara	3	2	0	1	+0	-1.0	6
5	Sant Andreu	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.1	4
6	Antoniano	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
7	Real Murcia	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.4	4
8	Numancia	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
9	Puerto de Vega	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
10	Burgos	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
11	Manises	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
12	Extremadura 1924	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
13	SD Negreira	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
14	Sant Just	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
15	Santander	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
16	Textil Escudo	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
17	Alaves	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
18	La Coruna	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
19	Navalcarnero	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
20	CF Talavera	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
21	Eldense	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
22	Real Ávila	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.4	3
23	Cieza	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
24	Palma del Rio	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
25	Torrent	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
26	Los Garres	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
27	Portugalete	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
28	CD Yuncos	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
29	Maracena	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
30	CD Sant Jordi	2	1	0	1	-4	–	3
31	Albacete	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
32	Atlético Astorga	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
33	Alberite	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
34	Sporting Ceuta	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
35	UD Ourense	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
36	Langreo	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
37	Campanario	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
38	Quintanar del Rey	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
39	Ebro	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
40	Reddis	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
41	Deportivo Getxo	2	0	1	1	-7	–	1
42	Inter de Valdemoro	2	0	1	1	-11	–	1
43	Orihuela	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
44	Constància	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
45	Leganes	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
46	Ponferradina	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
47	Cartagena	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
48	Poblense	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
49	Betis Valladolid	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
50	Atlético Tordesillas	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
51	Atlètic Lleida	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
52	Eibar	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
53	Zaragoza	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
54	Tenerife	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
55	Caudal	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
56	Puente Genil	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
57	Huesca	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
58	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
59	Granada	1	0	0	1	-2	+1.0	0
60	Universitario FC	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
61	UD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
62	Ucam Murcia	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
63	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
64	Estepona	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
65	Lourdes	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
66	Tropezón	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
67	Mutilvera	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
68	Mirandes	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
69	Sp Gijon	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
70	Sabadell	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
71	Ferrol	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
72	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
73	La Unión Atlético	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
74	Rayo Majadahonda	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
75	Azuaga	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
76	Atletico Calatayud	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
77	Toledo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
78	Pontevedra	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
79	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
80	San Fernando CD	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
81	Valle Egüés	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
82	Roda	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
83	Sámano	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
84	SD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
85	RSD Alcalá	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
86	Atlético Melilla	1	0	0	1	-5	–	0
87	Ciudad de Lucena	1	0	0	1	-6	–	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Betis	3	3	0	0	+11	-0.4	9
2	Osasuna	3	3	0	0	+9	–	9
3	Vallecano	3	3	0	0	+8	-1.4	9
4	Valencia	3	3	0	0	+8	+1.0	9
5	Elche	3	3	0	0	+6	-0.3	9
6	Sociedad	3	3	0	0	+6	–	9
7	Getafe	3	2	0	1	+10	-0.3	6
8	Alaves	2	2	0	0	+10	–	6
9	La Coruna	2	2	0	0	+6	–	6
10	Eibar	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
11	Granada	2	2	0	0	+5	-0.1	6
12	Santander	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
13	Huesca	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
14	Albacete	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
15	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.1	6
16	Sp Gijon	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
17	Mallorca	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.6	6
18	Burgos	2	2	0	0	+2	–	6
19	Levante	3	2	0	1	+1	–	6
20	Celta	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.1	5
21	Villarreal	3	1	1	1	+5	–	4
22	Palma del Rio	1	1	0	0	+5	–	3
23	Tenerife	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
24	CF Talavera	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
25	Leganes	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
26	Sant Just	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
27	Andorra	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
28	Inter de Valdemoro	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
29	Ponferradina	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
30	Eldense	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
31	CD Sant Jordi	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
32	Cultural Leonesa	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
33	Zaragoza	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
34	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
35	Cadiz	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
36	Malaga	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
37	Almeria	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
38	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
39	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
40	Ceuta	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
41	Sabadell	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
42	Deportivo Getxo	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
43	Ath Bilbao	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
44	Cartagena	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
45	Girona	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
46	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
47	Antequera	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
48	Ibiza	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
49	Mirandes	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
50	Puerto de Vega	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
51	Maracena	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
52	Universitario FC	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
53	Tarazona	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
54	Pontevedra	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
55	Europa Fc	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
56	Ferrol	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
57	Betis Valladolid	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
58	CD Yuncos	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
59	Mérida AD	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
60	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
61	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
62	SD Negreira	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
63	Castellon	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
64	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
65	Lourdes	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
66	Valladolid	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
67	Cordoba	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
68	Oviedo	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
69	Las Palmas	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
70	Juventud Torremolinos	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
71	Gimnastic	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
72	Los Garres	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
73	Manises	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
74	Sporting Ceuta	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
75	Campanario	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
76	Arenas Getxo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
77	Atletico Calatayud	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
78	Alberite	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
79	Textil Escudo	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
80	Atlético Melilla	1	0	0	1	-5	–	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.