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Champions League
Referee: E Lambrechts
Chelsea
U T S T S
1–0
Full-time
Pafos
T U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Pafos
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,3
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 58%
83%
33%
Average goals
3,7
2,2
Scored
2,2
0,7
Conceded
1,5
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 6/12 matches
Win Ø 46%
50%
42%
Points per game
1,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
83%
25%
Both score Ø 55%
67%
42%
Average goals
3,5
2,0
Scored
2,2
1,0
Conceded
1,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,85 xG 0,14
71% Possession 29%
21 Shots 4
7 Shots on target 2
7 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 6
15 Corners 2
6 Free kicks against 10
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Chelsea Pafos
33′
🟨 Mislav Oršić
Half-time 0–0
R. Sanchez 🔁
↦ F. Jorgensen
46′
Estêvão 🔁
↦ R. James
46′
56′
🟨 Ken Sema
65′
🔁 D. Quina
↦ Jaja
65′
🔁 L. Dimata
↦ Anderson Silva
M. Cucurella 🔁
↦ J. Hato
70′
J. Gittens 🔁
↦ A. Garnacho
70′
Joao Pedro 🔁
↦ L. Delap
70′
Jamie Gittens 🟨
73′
78′
🟨 Ivan Šunjić
1–0 M. Caicedo ⚽
78′
83′
🔁 M. Bassouamina
↦ M. Orsic
83′
🔁 B. Langa
↦ K. Sema
Enzo Fernández 🟨
86′
89′
🔁 G. Michael
↦ V. Dragomir
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Chelsea

4-2-3-1
12 F. Jorgensen G
27 M. Gusto D
29 W. Fofana D
5 B. Badiashile D
21 J. Hato D
24 R. James M
25 M. Caicedo M
7 P. Neto M
8 E. Fernandez M
49 A. Garnacho M
9 L. Delap F
Bench (12)
1 R. Sanchez
3 M. Cucurella
11 J. Gittens
17 Andrey Santos
20 Joao Pedro
23 T. Chalobah
32 T. George
34 J. Acheampong
38 M. Guiu
41 Estêvão
46 R. Walsh
56 L. Emenalo

Coach: Liam Rosenior

Pafos

3-4-2-1
1 J. Gorter G
23 D. Luckassen D
26 I. Sunjic D
2 K. Pileas D
7 Bruno M
30 V. Dragomir M
88 Pepe M
12 K. Sema M
17 M. Orsic F
11 Jaja F
33 Anderson Silva F
Bench (10)
82 P. Petrou
93 N. Michail
4 David Luiz
5 D. Goldar
8 D. Quina
9 M. Bassouamina
10 L. Dimata
25 B. Langa
42 G. Michael
87 Fontoura Joao

Coach: Albert Celades

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

E Lambrechts · 128 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.